China Speakers Bureau: December 2009

Revaluation Renminbi not smart - Shaun Rein

Shaun Rein by Fantake via Flickr

Should China revaluate its currency or not? No, says business analyst Shaun Rein in a publication of the International Institute for Trade in India. American business would be better off without at this stage with a firmer Renminbi:

Shaun Rein, founder and managing director of the China Market Research Group, a strategic market intelligence firm, mentioned that revaluing the Yuan right now will "jeopardize the world's fledgling economic recovery". Rein argued, "It is better for American businesses for China to maintain current Yuan rates until the worldwide recovery is on a firmer footing."

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Shaun Rein is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. When you need him at your conference or other meetings, do get in touch.

Inflation could become serious problem - Arthur Kroeber

Arthur Kroeber by Fantake via Flickr

Bubbles in real estate and otherwise could have a negative effect on China's economic development and inflation could become a serious problem in 2010, warns economic analyst Arthurs Kroeber in Citiwire from the UK:

'At this stage, although Beijing denies it, inflation could become a serious problem for China's economy, which is growing at above its potential. It increasingly seems that a continuation of the current loose monetary policy - which is what the government has promised - is a sure recipe for CPI inflation well above the government's rosy 3% forecast for next year.

'As the year closes, it seems to us that inflationary pressures in China will force a rethink of policy settings in the second quarter, leading Beijing to adopt a slightly lower growth target, a somewhat higher inflation tolerance, and a willingness to let the renminbi start rising again.'

While the revaluation of the Renminbi, China's currency, is high on the political wishlist of the rest of the world, fast changes are not to be expected. Kroeber:

'A smarter approach today would be to do a surprise one-off revaluation within the next month, followed by a reasonably wide trading band that would create both long-term appreciation and short-term unpredictability.

'Unfortunately, we do not think this is the most likely course of action: delay and gradualism are more probable. But for the first time in many years we are not willing to rule out a quick jump in the renmimbi. It might be as well to hedge one's bets. And more importantly, we should start to doubt Beijing when it says it has inflation under control.'

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Arthur Kroeber is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. If you want to share his insights at your conference, do get in touch.

The big disconnect - Kaiser Kuo

Kaiser Kuo by Fantake via Flickr

Fortunately saved for history is Kaiser Kuo's great speech in November at TedxHonolulu on Chinese-US relations and the big disconnect between the rednecks and the red guards on the internet, the big disconnect between American and Chinese relationships.
He asks his mainly American audience for empathy for the Chinese people, just a bit more interest in their way of thinking and China's history. A great speech.

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Kaiser Kuo is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. When you need him at your conference, do get in touch.

Most-sought speakers for December 2009:

Zhang Lijia by Fantake via Flickr

Zhang Lijia and Paul French are the two only new-comers in our December top-10 of most-sought speakers, otherwise our ranking has remained remarkable stable compared to November.
Zhang Lijia returned in December from her three-month participation in the prestigious international writers program of the University of Iowa. In those months she remained relatively quiet, but she is reentering the lights of publicity very fast again. In January she will visit Rome, Paris and Brussels to support the Italian and French translations of her famous book "Socialism is great", who have hit already the shelves. In February she is also planing a short trip to Japan.
Paul French - who is actually not short of publications himself - got himself a lot of attention for his first novel at Penguin. Amazing, since the book itself has not yet been released, but that has been compensated by his biting comments on China's markets, including the demise of the Barbie store in Shanghai.
Leading the pack with a huge margin are still Kaiser Kuo and Shaun Rein, who also support our conviction that more exposure in the mainstream media still means a higher interests in our speakers.

The December 2009 top-10 (November in brackets)

Why China is already a superpower - Shaun Rein

Shaun Rein by Fantake via Flickr

Shaun Rein takes on James Fallow of The Atlantic, who thinks 44 percent of the Americans have lost their marbles because they think China is a more important superpower than the US. Rein issues a wake-up call for James Fallows and argues in Forbes that China is already an established superpower. Even more, China's business people see in the ongoing global crisis an excellent stepping stone to enter the world areana even more:

My firm, the China Market Research Group, interviewed 500 senior executives at 100 Chinese companies in 10 industries. Seventy percent of them told us they planned to use the downturn to speed up their international expansion, using both acquisitions and organic growth. They specifically aimed to tap into the U.S. and Western Europe with their cash wealth.

The second trend that shows that China is an established superpower, not just a rising one, is its emergence as a hotbed of innovation. Many analysts believe that Chinese are good at copying but not at innovating. That's just not true anymore....

The third trend: Not only is China becoming ever more powerful economically; it is also starting to exert its political power more responsibly. Although it has been a bit combative on climate and carbon emissions at the Copenhagen conference, it has taken a leading role among the G-20 group of nations in helping push for effective responses to the world financial crisis.

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Who do you think is right? Is China already an established superpower, as Shaun Rein says? You can ask him yourself, by inviting him for your meeting or conference. He belongs to the China Speakers Bureau and do get in touch with us, if you need him.

How did China do it? - Arthur Kroeber

Shanghai mall by Fantake via Flickr

The world is still at best marginally recovering from a global crisis, while China is booming already. Arthur Kroeber explains in Market Oracle how it comes that for the first time the roots for economic rebounds were not found in the US, but in China. And while China's export fell in 2009, its economic growth went up, for the first time in 30 years. That looks good now, but does not mean China is heading for an easy ride, says Kroeber. He makes two points.

First, the value of the export for China's growth has always been overestimated, writes Kroeber.

Aside from the roll-over in exports, China's second important turning point is a bit further off, but is no less crucial. For the entire three decades of China's reform era, the dependency ratio--the ratio of people of non-working age to those of working age--has been falling, from a high of around 80 dependents per 100 workers in the mid-1970s, to under 40 today.

As in the other high-growth Asian economies before, a falling dependency ratio resulted in a higher saving rate, which enabled large investments, and an abundant labor force, which kept wages low. By 2015 at the latest, this ratio will start to rise because of the aging population, and the "demographic dividend" will turn into a demographic tax. The saving rate will begin to come down, the labor market will get tighter, and real wages will start to rise more sharply. A tighter

Arthur Kroeber by Fantake via Flickr

labor market and upward wage pressures were already in evidence by 2007, and will re-appear quite soon once the impact of last year's financial crisis fades.

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Arthur Kroeber is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. When you are interested in having him at your conference, do let us know.

Diamonds: a very booming business - Shaun Rein

Shaun Rein by Fantake via Flickr

Luxury goods might be doing very well among China's emerging wealthy, diamonds are even better, tells Shaun Rein in Newsweek. Compared to other diamond markets, the Chinese are the most promising buyers. In Newsweek:

China's diamond lust is being driven in large part by its burgeoning, young middle class, with whom the old tag line "Diamonds are a girl's best friend" resonates particularly well, says Shaun Rein, managing director of the China Market Research Group in Shanghai. As a result, bridal jewelry is booming. Rein expects annual diamond sales to rise at least 20 percent for the next three years. Already companies like Cartier are planning more store openings. Rein adds that the Chinese government just wrote off $10 billion in debt with African nations to secure access to commodities like diamonds. To Martin Rapaport, of the Rapaport Diamond Report, the long-term impact is clear.

"We tend to think of China as a big supplier to America. But the new truth will be that China will be the biggest [diamond] buyer from America and the rest of the world."

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Shaun Rein is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. When you are interested in having him as a speaker, do get in touch.

Chinese shop for bargains, in Paris, London, Hong Kong - Paul French

Shanghai via Wikipedia

Chinese shoppers are welcome guests in the world's luxury capitals like London, Paris, Macau and Hong Kong. Shanghai-based retail expert Paul French explains the the Globe and Mail why they prefer to go abroad, in stead of shopping in China itself.

"All around the world, people are seeing mainlanders [Chinese] coming in to shop - in Hong Kong, Macau, London, Paris. Chinese shoppers are not stupid: They know these things are half-price outside China," said Paul French, a Shanghai-based analyst with Access Asia.

Still, all the luxury brands have their flagships also in prime retail spaces in Beijing, Shanghai and other concentrations of wealthy Chinese consumers. Why? Paul French explains:

Given the modest leasing costs and low wages for sales staff, Mr. French argues that setting up shop in Chinese cities amounts to high-profile and effective advertising for international companies to create brand awareness.

"If you don't have the stores here, and you don't open everywhere and do the advertising, when the Chinese tourist goes abroad he doesn't know what he's looking at," Mr. French explained. "It's very, very cheap advertising."

Paul French by Fantake via Flickr

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Paul French is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. When you need him at your conference, do get in touch.

China's Ponzi scheme - Victor Shih

Charles Ponzi (March 3, 1882–January 18, 1949)...

Charles Ponzi via Wikipedia

Victor Shih by Fantake via Flickr

China's economic growth might look encouraging, but financial and political experts like Victor Shih warn in Forbes for what is really keeping the economy burning.

"It's a Ponzi scheme whose head is the central bank, and it can print money," says Victor Shih, a China expert at Northwestern University.

And with any Ponzi scheme, the question is when it falls apart.It's economy has been developing many bubbles:

Related-party transactions are another popular funding source. Hainan Expressway Co. in southern China is a government-owned outfit deep in hock. In the last year it has lent some $40 million to its founding shareholder, the Hainan Department of Transportation, and booked the loan due as an asset on its balance sheet. This classification provides the Hainan Expressway with additional collateral to borrow even more in new construction loans from state-owned financial institutions and increases the risk that it will eventually default, according to Northwestern's Shih.

More in Forbes.

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Victor Shih is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. When you are interested in having him at your conference, do get in touch.

Zunaira Munir joins China Speakers Bureau

Have you ever wondered how to apply the Blue Ocean strategy in a highly competitive economy like China? Blue Ocean expert Zunaira Munir has a solid background in China, where she obtained a PhD in Innovation Management from Wuhan University of Technology, China.
Are you interested to learn more? Do get in touch with our team at the China Speakers Bureau.
Not familiar with the Blue Ocean strategy that has been developed at INSEAD? Follow the links.

Zhang Lijia: European book tour in January

Zhang Lijia by Fantake via Flickr

Celebrity author Zhang Lijia has just returned this week in Beijing after spending three months at the prestigious International Writers Program at the Iowa University. But her career as a successful is further developing and the French and Italian editions of her book "Socialism is Great!" will hit the bookshelves this month and she will visit Europe in January.
On her schedule, visits to Paris (9-16 January), Rome (16-24 January) and Brussels (24-26 January) have been planned. Her schedule still allows some speaking opportunities in those cities around those data. If you are interested in having her at your meeting, do get in touch with The European headquarters of the China Speakers Bureau. Phone: +32 3664 2921

Calling names: who got it wrong in China - Shaun Rein

Shaun Rein by Fantake via Flickr

It's Apple with their iPhone, eBay, Motorola, Tiffany, Nautica and Brooks Brothers got it wrong in China and Shaun Rein spells out in Forbes why they got it wrong. He fortunately also tells us who got it right, at least better than the losing companies, like the German car maker BMW:

BMW localizes for Chinese consumers. The average Chinese buyer of luxury cars such as BMW, Mercedes and Bentley is 40 years old, much younger than in other markets. He has a chauffeur for weekdays but hits the freeways himself on weekends. BMW accommodated local habits by extending the backseat legroom in its Series 5 line by several inches. It also created its first social media site, MyBMWClub.cn, to appeal to younger owners. Using an understanding of local consumers in developing its strategies has worked for the company. In 2009 through October, BMW has sold 71,952 vehicles in China, up 36.7% from 52,622 a year before. The country is now the company's largest market for its flagship Series 7 line, and its fourth largest market overall.

More in Forbes.

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Shaun Rein is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. When you need him at your meeting or conference, do get in touch.

Tuesday, December 29, 2009

Revaluation Renminbi not smart - Shaun Rein

Inflation could become serious problem - Arthur Kroeber

Tuesday, December 22, 2009

The big disconnect - Kaiser Kuo

Thursday, December 17, 2009

Most-sought speakers for December 2009:

Wednesday, December 16, 2009

Why China is already a superpower - Shaun Rein

Tuesday, December 15, 2009

How did China do it? - Arthur Kroeber

Diamonds: a very booming business - Shaun Rein

Saturday, December 12, 2009

Chinese shop for bargains, in Paris, London, Hong Kong - Paul French

Thursday, December 10, 2009

China's Ponzi scheme - Victor Shih

Tuesday, December 8, 2009

Zunaira Munir joins China Speakers Bureau

Wednesday, December 2, 2009

Zhang Lijia: European book tour in January

Calling names: who got it wrong in China - Shaun Rein

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