Third day of the new year in Beijing

Really deafening when you are in the middle of it!

Rebound of real estate expected in year of the ox - Sam Crispin

Image by mtlp via FlickrReal estate in China is expected to rebound over the coming twelve months as the central government is reversing its policies, writes real estate guru Sam Crispin in a newly released CPIM report.

CPIM expect most of the government measures brought in to control the property market since 2004 to be reversed in stages. Despite a number of negative factors and declines forecast not all sectors, segments and locations are behaving in the same way.
In the Bohai Bay Area of China some cities are seeing half the number of buyers in while in others transactions are only 11% down. Tianjin and Beijing prices almost unchanged over the full year in 2008. Average land prices closed at Rmb1,380 per sq.m in Tianjin, almost 42.5% down from the previous year.

Other regions in southern parts of China showed a more negative trend, the report says.

Overall, government intervention to support the market give CPIM cause for optimism. ‘It isn’t everything, but government support in the socialist market economy counts for an awful lot, municipal governments are already moving to mop up some of the surplus inventory’ commented Mr Crispin who has been working in China real estate since 1994. At the very least Chinese banks are still standing and still lending is a key point of difference with many other markets around the world.

The full report can be found here.

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Sam Crispin is a leading voice on China's real estate and a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. When you need him at your conference, do get in touch.Sam Crispin
by Fons1 via Flickr

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Cautious consumer spending to continue - Shaun Rein

Image by Fons1 via FlickrShaun Rein of the China Market Research Group (CMR) explains to the newswire Bloomberg why he remains cautiously optimistic about consumer spending in China, although the number of optimists in China dropped from 70 percent in December to 60 percent now.
While big ticket items like real estate and cars might still see huge problems, Rein list a group of industries, including cheaper restaurants, online games and e-commerce who might actually benefit from the current economic downturn.

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Shaun Rein is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau and he will participate in a Global China Chat on consumer confidence in February. Click here for more information, or go to our website to register for our newsletter.

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Global China chat on consumer confidence

Shaun Rein
by Fons1 via FlickrThe year of the ox is going to be the year of the Chinese consumer, and their confidence in the future of their economy. As the export is seeking new lows every month, both the central government and China's companies look at domestic consumption - next to investments in infrastructure - as a possible solution to outspend the current downturn.
But is that strategy working? Early signals show that part of the urban white collar workers are reducing their expenditures, fearing the future. In some parts of China government policies seem to work and in national figures consumer spending seems to be on track. But can we trust those figures? In December 2008 China's consumers still seemed to be spending, but will the same also happen in February when sales typically stall after Chinese New Year?
In February the China Speakers Bureau is going to address some of those questions in a first Global China Chat with Shaun Rein of the China Market Research Group (CMR) in Shanghai, and one of the leading voices on China's consumers, moderated by Maria Korolov. CMR has been monitoring consumer confidence in China and Shaun Rein will answer some of your questions on how China's consumers are reacting and whether consumer spending will save it's economy.
The exact date will be published later, but we intend to take a time that will make it possible for most timezones to participate in this live online discussion. The most likely schedule:

Beijing: 11 -12 PM
Brussels: 4 - 5PM
New York: 9-10 AM
Los Angeles: 8-9 AM

Times might change depending on the interest we note from you.
Are you interested in participating or do you have already questions to ask Shaun Rein, Maria Korolov
by Fons1 via Flickr When you pre-register we make sure that you will get a timely updates on the event and privileged access to get your questions answered. Do send us an email with "Global China Chat" in the subject line or register for our newsletter.

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Being a princeling no longer a nono - Victor Shih

Deng Xiaoping would be upset
via WikipediaFor a long time, and up to not so long ago, making use of your bloodlines was not done for descendants of Communist celebrities, writes Victor Shih at his weblog. But the princelings - as they are called - now make full use of their parents credential, wishing the Chinese happy new year at the front pages of the People's Daily.

You see interviews with princelings recounting their memories of their fathers displayed prominently on the website. Even Mao Xinyu, the grandson of Chairman Mao (left), is trotted out frequently. The latest item goes too far, I think. First of all, instead of "princelings," they are now called "red descendants." Eh, doesn't that sound a bit like the "blood line theory," which dominated early Red Guard discourse back in the Cultural Revolution (slogan: father a hero, son good man; father reactionary, son turtle's egg). These "red descendants" are collectively wishing the Chinese people happy new year. Great! So now it's officially okay to admit that "red descendants" is a coherent social group, one that is to be admired by the people.

Back in the 1980s those people would have gotten into trouble with former leader Deng Xiaoping and princelings would have to actually hide their connections, writes Shih.

Even Bo Xicheng, Bo Xilai's elusive brother, makes an appearance. Look, this looks suspiciously like the princelings' play at building up more legitimacy for themselves in preparation of Xi Jinping's takeover. It is sad to see because Chen Yun and even Xi Zhongxun himself would never have allowed such abuse of these ties in the public discourse. Where is Song Ping when you need him?

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Victor Shih is one of the leading voices on China's political developmentVictor Shih
by Fons1 via Flickrs among the speakers at the China Speakers Bureau. If you need him at your conference or meeting, do let us know.

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Year of the Ox, year of the bull

Image by chooyutshing via FlickrEvery animal in the Chinese zodiac seems to have a hang-up. Is it the year of the rat or - because of the perceived evilness in the West of the rat - should it be rather called the year of the mouse? The new year has a similar problem. Is it the Year of the Ox, or should the economically inclined call it the Year of the Bull.
Guess, the Year of the Bull gives a nice positive outlook, that is very much needed, so I will stick to the bull for the time being. Happy Chinese New Year!

China, testing ground for online games - Marc van der Chijs

Marc van der Chijs
by Fons1 via FlickrCrisis or no crisis, online games are moving fast, explains Spil Games Asia CEO Marc van der Chijs to Pacific Epoch how his company uses China as a testing ground for the world. The free games, that play for free for up to one hour, are tremendous popular in China.

The business model we have is focused on advertising revenue. We also work on a revenue-share basis to promote webgames and MMORPGs. I use China as a testing ground for new things. I think China is ahead of the rest of the world in terms of games. In-game items and the free-to-play model all originally came from China. Our first mobile gaming site worldwide was part of the Chinese website here. We also recently started a webgame portal. We run these games ourselves with our own payment systems and everything. Before, our portals were only advertising-based but now we use the pay-for-item model as well for our webgames.

Van de Chijs is very critical about the advertisement agencies, he mostly qualifies as "lazy". Spil's business model depends mostly on advertising and revenue sharing with other games and very limited in-game ads. Marc van der Chijs:

We do have in-game ads, but it is very limited still. In China, it is very difficult to find in-game advertisers because the advertising agencies are too lazy to sell these things. It's a small market for sure and they would need to invest a lot of time to do it. Even online ads are difficult in China because agencies just don’t want to sell them to their customers; it's easier for them to keep working with TV ads.

More at Pacific Epoch.

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Marc van der Chijs is also co-founder of the popular video-hosting company Tudou.com and speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. When you need him to explain how to do business in China, do get in touch.

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Lack of capital still hurting business - Rupert Hoogewerf

Rupert Hoogewerf
by Getty Images via DaylifeThirty years ago has opened its economy, but for entrepreneurs the main problem is still the same, access to capital, says China's rich list maker Rupert Hoogewerf in an interview with the leading German newspaper Die Sueddeutsche.
"All rich in China have founded their own firms," Hoogewerf says. "Unlike Europe and the US where you would have family firms that have existed for generations. And most of them started to collect money at home in ten-yuan pieces (euro 0.90), the largest denomination at the time. Access to capital is still very important to start a business in China, as important as having a smart business idea.
Innovation is going to be one of the key success factors for the future, he adds. "Copy cats are no longer enough in the future."

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Rupert Hoogewerf is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. When you are interested in having him at your conference, meeting or panel, do get in touch.

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Andrew Leung joins China Speakers Bureau

Andrew K.P. Leung
by Fons1 via FlickrProfessor Andrew K.P. Leung from London is one of the latest celebrity speakers who joined the China Speakers Bureau. His resounding resume reflects a 40-year career in international business, diplomacy and trade. At the China Speakers Bureau we gladly welcome professor Leung in our stable of prestigious speakers on China.

CSB newsletter for January is out

Image by Getty Images via DaylifeThe China Speakers Bureau has sent out its newsletter for January 2009, with some predictions by our speakers on what to expect for 2009. Expected theme for the February 2009 newsletter: what is Barack Obama going to mean for the relations between China and the US? Click here to see our newsletter.

Most sought speakers - January 2008

Kaiser Kuo
by Fons1 via FlickrOur January edition of the list of most-sought speakers at the China Speakers Bureau is covering much of the past holidays, so changes have been light, comparead to our December list. Highest newcomer was Kaiser Kuo, who raised quite a lot of interest with the tour of his band, reviving his name as a rock star. He also decided to leave advertisement company Ogilvy as their director digital strategy.
Since the holidays are over, our speakers have been hitting the mainstream media again in a huge way. William Overholt addressed the need for a global central bank to address future crisis. Charles McElwee looked at how the financial rescue package addressed the environment and Shaun Rein had a ten-piece report on Chinese companies going global.
More at our Speakers' Corner.
We expect another slow-down as China will be on its Spring Festival holiday - a happy year of the ox, before I forget to mention that.
Now, our January top-10 list (December in brackets):

1. Shaun Rein (1)
2. Zhang Lijia (2)
3. Victor Shih (4)
4. William Bao Bean (3)
5. Kaiser Kuo (-)
6. William Overholt (7)
7. Jeremy Goldkorn (-)
8. Arthur Kroeber (5)
9. Jasper Becker (10)
10. Amy Sommers (-)
    

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Steel industry needs reform rather than stimulus - Arthur Kroeber

Arthur Kroeber
by Fons1 via FlickrChina's heavy industry needs rather readjustment to the current overcapacity in stead of a stimulus package, China analyst Arthur Kroeber tells The Australian in an critical view on how China is dealing with the current economic downturn.
Arthur Kroeber:

"The message is clear: China's heavy industry sector is plagued by over-capacity and will need to readjust to a significantly weaker demand pattern than was anticipated a year ago."

In less than a decade the steel output grew from 100 million tonnes to 570 tonnes and now fell back to a more sustainable 400 tonnes. Kroeber expects a soft landing but by now means an easy or short landing.

He says that hidden debt in China's corporate sector is higher than revealed by official bank-loan data, since 44 per cent of corporate capital expenditure in 2008 was financed by money whose source is literally unknowable.
Industrialisation, urbanisation and thus growth will continue, he stresses, but subject to gradually increasing constraints -- some demographic (due to the rapid ageing of the population) and environmental, others the results of deliberate government policy.
Of concern to Australia, Kroeber predicts that the resource intensity of China's growth will be far lower in the next five years than it was in the last five as a result of industrial consolidation, slower growth, and efficiency improvements.

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Arthur Kroeber is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. When you want to share his insights on how China is going to deal with its economic downturn, do get in touch.

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• No money for Western banks - Victor Shih

The Chinese with a Western name - Paul Denlinger

Paul Denlinger
by Fons1 via FlickrIndependent consultant Paul Denlinger explains Thomas Crampton how this global citizens got involved with a lot of the big names in the Chinese internet.

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Books on China that make a difference - Tom Doctoroff

Tom Doctoroff

Tom Doctoroff takes for the Huffington Post a look at the books on China that really mattered to him. How an American starts to find out about China, the starters:

Before I landed in Shanghai in 1998, even after four years of living in Hong Kong, my world view was "typically American." It's difficult for non-Americans to appreciate the sense of exceptionalism we grow up with. From Ronald Reagan's stirring references to the United States as a "shining city on a hill" to civil studies that represented American democracy as the culmination of Western history, we were raised with a quasi-religious belief in Jeffersonian ideals - an inalienable right to the pursuit of happiness rooted in individualism - as the destiny of all mankind. For the past ten years, however, my job has been to advertise both Western and Chinese products to the Chinese. Some call me a sell out or, even worse, an abettor of dictators. Regardless, I quickly learned that brands must align themselves with a Chinese world view, lest they sacrifice both revenue and profit on the altar of cultural absolutism.

Much more at the Huffington Post.

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China's rich become triftier as fortunes melt away - Rupert Hoogewerf

Rupert Hoogewerf
by Getty Images via DaylifeThe wealth of China's millionaires has halved at the end of 2008, says Rupert Hoogewerf, composer of the China' rich list in the China Daily. And they are also tightening their belts.

"In the two months from early September to early November, the average wealth of the richest who own listed companies shrank by 45 percent, after an over-20 percent fall earlier in 2008," said Rupert Hoogewerf, chairman of luxury publishing group Hurun Report, which releases the Hurun Rich List of Chinese tycoons and entrepreneurs annually.

Their wealth had already been hit by a dropping stock market in early 2008, hitting their wealth with an average 20 percent.

"Surprisingly, the rich we surveyed said that their average spending this year was two million yuan, which is significantly less than I expected," Hoogewerf said.
International media usually report that the rich in China spend four to five million yuan a year, he added.

Many more details at the China Daily.

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Rupert Hoogewerf is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. If you are interested in having him at your meeting, do get in touch.

Janet Carmosky joins the China Speakers Bureau

Janet Carmosky

Janet Carmosky, CEO of the China Business Network, has joined the China Speakers Bureau as a speaker.
Janet Carmosky is one of the leading voices on China business in the US. With a heavy experience of a wide range of industries in China, its culture and way of dealing with the people. In a hands-on way she has a very convincing story for both beginners and veterans in dealing with China.
For more details, please visit here profile.

Upcoming: the CSB January newsletter

Sam Flemming
by Fons1 via FlickrAt the global offices of the China Speakers Bureau we have started to make our January 2009 newsletter, with predictions of our speakers for 2009, the top-10 of most-sought speakers and tips on how to select a good speaker.
Since our launch in November the number of subscribers is now in the triple digits. If you want to make sure you get our January newsletter, please subscribe now.

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Zhang Lijia on book tour in India

Zhang Lijia
by Fons1 via FlickrCelebrity speaker and author Zhang Lijia will visit India on a book tour at the end of January. Her book "Socialism is great!" is fast conquering larger audiences worldwide.
After her arrivel in Delhi, she will be attending the Jaipur Literature Festival from 22 till 25 January. For launching events and interviews she will be in Delhi from 26 to 28 January

When you are interested in having Zhang Lijia as a speakers, do get in touch with the China Speakers Bureau.

Chemical company plays hardball with Xiamen gov. - Charles McElwee

Charles McElwee
by Fons1 via FlickrChina Ministry of Environmental Protection (MEP) approved last Friday also the PX-project that has moved from Xiamen to Zhangzhou after fierce protest from its citizens. Environmental lawyer Charles McElwee notes in his weblog interesting deals that are part of the final approval.

“The Xiamen government has now reached a consensus with Tenglong’s parent Xianglu Group to relocate the project. It has promised to pay compensation to Xianglu after the decision was approved by the central government.” Huh, why does Xiamen owe any compensation to Xianglu in this matter?
Its clear that Tenglong and its parent Xianglu feel confident enough (that means connected enough) to play hardball. That makes the accomplishments of the citizenry of Xiamen in forcing this move even more remarkable.

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Charles McElwee is one of the leading voices at the China Speakers Bureau. If you are interested in having him, do get in touch.