China Speakers Bureau: April 2009

China invests in overcapacity - Victor Shih

Image by Fantake via Flickr

Our speaker Victor Shih has been digging up an internal report by China's central bank the People's Bank of China (PBOC): most of the stimulus package goes to state-owned construction companies. For the time being Shih sticks to his guns: it is very doubtful China's stimulus packages might work.

Why the stimulus package might still not work - Victor Shih

Victor Shih by Fantake via Flickr

While some might see some positive economic signs in China, assistant-professor Victor Shih sticks to his gun and does not see a real recovery. In his weblog he points at all those important signals that are still not well and not encouraged by the 5 trillion renminbi stimulus package:

1. First of all, export and FDI continue to fall at a pretty fast pace, which can't be helped.

2. More alarming, inventory for many industrial goods continue to build UP! According to a recent note by Stephen Green's team, refined oil inventory is up over 35% YoY as of the end of February.

3. Coal inventory seems to have gone down, but that's because many coal mines have ceased to operate. The 21st Century Business Herald reported that 50-70% of mines are "resting" for the moment. Iron ore mines are facing the same problem as international iron ore now costs less than domestic ore.

4. Electricity usage continues to be in negative territory.

More in his weblog.

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Victor Shih is also a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. When you want him to share his insights at your meeting, do get in touch,

Chinese speakers bureau April 2009 newsletter

William Bao Bean by Fantake via Flickr

The China Speakers Bureau April 2009 newsletter has just hit the road and is available here to download. We announce here the upcoming Global China Chat with Sam Flemming on social networks, consumers and brands. The latest news from our speakers, the most-sought speakers of April and additional tips for selecting a speaker. If you do not want to miss our May newsletter, do register for a free subscription at our home page.

Global China Chats on social networks, consumers and brands

Sam Flemming by Fantake via Flickr

On May 14 the China Speakers Bureau will hold its next Global China Chat, this time with Sam Flemming , the managing director of CIC, the leading firm for checking out online trends, the internet in China. Questions to be answers:

How is the Chinese internet working differently from the internet elsewhere
How are Chinese consumers using the internet to let their voice be heard.
How can you get your marketing ideas from consumers

The live debate will be split in two sections, to facilitate different time zones. The first Global China Chat focusing on Asia and Europe, will be hosted at 5PM Beijing Time, 9AM UCT and 11AM CEST in the first interface. (Note that the time is only given in CEST).

The second chat, in the second interface, focusing on office hours in Europe and the Americas will be held at 5PM CEST, 11 AM EDT, 8AM PDT and 11 PM Beijing time. On May 14 new interfaces will be on top of this weblog. You can register now and send already your questions for Sam Flemming to Fons Tuinstra .

Social unrest no issue at China's country side - Arthur Kroeber

Arthur Kroeber by Fantake via Flickr

Gloomy reports in Western media on mass dismissals and social unrest among China's migrant workers as the export industry seemed to suffer from downsizing have proven to be wrong, writes Arthur Kroeber (together with Tom Miller) in todays Financial Times. In Henan province, largest supplier of migrant workers, not over 20 million workers became unemployed, but rather half a million, a manageable problem in the heavy populated province.
Restructuring of the state-owned industry has costs 50 million jobs between 1995 and 2005, in size a much larger problems as many of the laid-off were really no longer fit for the labor market. From the FT:

Aside from some localised protests, sacked workers have been far busier finding new jobs than venting their rage. This is unsurprising: migrants working in export factories and construction sites are accustomed to finding work where they can and many have been dismissed before. Chinese migrant labourers are among the most flexible in the world....

This is not to make light of the current situation: millions of vulnerable migrants have lost their jobs and times are tough. But the resilience of China's workers should not be underestimated, and fears of social unrest caused by unemployed migrants have been greatly exaggerated.

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Arthur Kroeber is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau . If you are interested in having him as a speaker, do get in touch.

Leading labor researcher Zhang Juwei joins China Speakers Bureau

Zhang Juwei , deputy director of the Institute for Population and Labor Economics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, has joined the China Speakers Bureau . His institute is one of the leading think tanks, providing central and provincial government advice on their economic and labor policies.

Zhang's institute was one of the first to challenge the common cliche of China as an unlimited source of cheap labor, and predicted a labor shortage in the years to come.
Zhang Juwei address also broader economic dilemma's China is facing, as the world is watching how the country seems to be the first to get out of the global recession.

Internet changes the world for companies in China - Sam Flemming

Sam Flemming by Fantake via Flickr

The internet has changed the world for companies working in China, says CIC-founder Sam Flemming in the magazine of Wharton Business School on China and CSR-systems. CIC tracks online debate on the Chinese internet. Sam Flemming:

"The world wide web now serves essentially as an amplifier, vastly increasing the reach and influence of the word-of-mouth conversations on brands that previously took place offline. The migration online has not only increased the potential readership of comments on brands to some 250 million Chinese netizens; these comments are also now archived, so that they are rarely forgotten and can be easily referenced again later."...
"Tracking online opinion not only allows a company to react quickly when an online public relations crisis is brewing -- such as Carrefour in the recent Sichuan earthquake -- but also helps the company identify key online stakeholders. These stakeholders, who are sometimes simply fans of the brand, can be very helpful in managing the company's brand online."

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Sam Flemming is a renowned speaker on the effects of the internet on China and the online word-of-mouth. He is represented by the China Speakers Bureau . Do get in touch when you need him at your conference.

Is China going to bail out the car producers? - Shaun Rein

Image by Fantake via Flickr

Shaun Rein of CMR in Shanghai looks ahead at the future of international car makers as the Shanghai auto show opens for business today.
At CNBC he explains why the top end of the market, Mercedes and BMW is still growing by 30-50 percent, providing China's rich the car they want. Also in the lower end of the market, under 1.6 liter, he sees great potential, as the Chinese government has been stimulating the car market very much.
But he is more somber about the middle segment of the market, the classic middle class car, and is not so sure whether GM and Chrysler can be saved by China. More at CNBC

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Shaun Rein is also a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau . When you are interested in having him at your conference, do let us know.

KFC-guru Warren Liu to visit US

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Celebrity speaker Warren Liu , author of a ground-breaking book on the success of KFC in China, will visit the United States end of May, June and a part of July. His thorough analysis of why the American food chain succeeded in China, where many other famous American firms failed, is based on his solid experience in both Chinese business and academia.
Ken Lieberthal, a leading scholar on China at the University of Michigan, is praising Warren Liu's book:

"Warren Liu's fascinating book provides deep insights into the enormous success of KFC in the Chinese market. He unravels the key factors-not only KFC's overall strategy but its embrace of localization, rapid execution, and other adaptations-that spell success, even against McDonald's-------and he tells the story with

Image via Wikipedia
both analytical rigor and verve. This is a serious and fascinating study."

If you are interested in having Warren Liu as a speaker at your event or conference. Do get in touch with the China Speakers Bureau.

Rowan Gibson in Beijing for Chinese innovation bestseller

Cover of "Innovation to the Core: A Bluep...

Cover via Amazon

Rowan Gibson, co-author of the Harvard-book "Innovation to the Core", will be in Beijing in the second week of May to receive the Chinese translations of his bestseller book. The book will be published by the famous business publisher CITIC.
During his visit, Rowan Gibson will be available for meetings and talks on May 12 and 13.
He is also author of "The Innovation War Room. Strategies for Winning in Touch Economic Times".

Rowan Gibson by Fantake via Flickr

Rowan Gibson is also a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau . If you are interested in having him as a speaker, do get in touch.

Mainland millionaires hit record - Rupert Hoogewerf

CHONGQING, CHINA - JUNE 16: Rupert Hoogewerf ...

Image by Getty Images via Daylife

Dwindling value of the Chinese stock markets might have hit China's wealthy dramatically, the number of millionaires on the mainland in Renminbi has hit a record 825,000, says Rupert Hoogewerf in his latest Hurun report, writes the China Daily. More than 51,000 have even more than 100 million Renminbi.
Rupert Hoogewerf has been tracking China's wealthy since 1999.
The China Daily:

According to the new report, the number of wealthy people with more than 10 million yuan in Beijing, Guangdong and Shanghai made up nearly half of the total.

Beijing, with a population at more than 16 million, boasts the highest number of millionaires -- at around 143,000.

The capital was followed by south China's Guangdong province, where the number of 10-million tycoons reached 137,000. The business hub of Shanghai has 116,000 such wealthy people.

The report showed that average age of the millionaires was 39, and those people fell into four categories: businessmen, those with high-profile jobs such as celebrities, those who earned money from housing trades and professional stock investors.

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Rupert Hoogewerf is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau . When you are interested in having him at your meeting, do get in touch.

Annette Nijs joins China Speakers Bureau

{{nl|Annette Nijs - Afbeelding van een (voorma...

Annette Nijs via Wikipedia

Annette Nijs , currently Executive Director Global Initiative of China's leading business school CEIBS, has joined the China Speakers Bureau. Through her career in politics, as a Dutch cabinet minister, and in business at Shell, Ms Nijs has developed an extensive network that supports her current position. For the China Europe International Business School she currently is involved in all global initiatives of the school, since October 2008. About the initiative:

The Initiative fosters new corporate, government and academic relations in Europe, US and Latin America and expands the relations with current partners in China to other regions in the world. The Initiative aims to spread CEIBS Knowledge in top business media and at top corporate events outside China. Ms Nijs will also invite Western business leaders to the CEIBS partnership programme as well as to the Shanghai campus to attend executive education programmes and to speak at CEIBS’ annual forums. Furthermore, the Initiative will also facilitate an international recruitment drive for MBA scholarships, internships and job opportunities. Ms. Nijs’ work is also expected to benefit CEIBS’ international alumni.

Thanks to her extensive network Ms. Nijs is able to give both tailor-made speeches on specific industries in China and, with her back ground in macro-economics, put China's development also in a broader perspective.

Most-sought speakers for April 2009

Sam Flemming by Fantake via Flickr

In April we see at the China Speakers Bureau , compared to our March listing, a remarkable set of newcomers in the top-10 of most sought speakers for the month, although some have been there in previous months. Only the first four are maintaining a top position, but we do have a set of new names,
Highest newcomer in April at number 5 is Sam Flemming , one of our outspoken analysts on how the internet is changing China (and perhaps the other way around). Sam Flemming will participate in our next Global China Chat, this time about the Internet Word of Mouth (IWOM), in the week after the upcoming May holidays.
Second newcomer is professor Zhang Jun of Fudan University (who will join a conference panel with Paul Krugman in May in Seoul), who proves that beating the drum in the mainstream media still makes sense.
Professor Zhang Jun was quoted in the past month in almost every thinkable publication, as he advised the Shanghai theater group who will use Karl Marx's Das Kapital as a way to explain the financial crisis to a larger audience.
Additionally Roy Graff, who helped to organize our Global China Chat on tourism, Paul French and Janet Carmosky entered the top-10.

Our listing for April (March in brackets)

Zhang Jun by Fantake via Flickr
Shaun Rein (1)
Kaiser Kuo (7)
Victor Shih (8)
Arthur Kroeber (2)
Sam Flemming (-)
Zhang Jun (-)
Roy Graff (-)
Tom Doctoroff (6)
Janet Carmosky (-)
Paul French (-)

Explaining the stimulus package - Shaun Rein

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A fast-acting government has organized a soft landing of its economy, says Shaun Rein of the research firm CMR in Shanghai in an overview of the country's stimulus package for Seeking Alpha. Consumer confidence remain strong and did not need much attention, he says, but a combination of other measures has certainly helped to mitigate the effects.

We need to give credit to the Chinese government -- they have moved incredibly fast to implement policies to ensure a soft landing in China. Even adding the number of graduate student positions in universities has helped keep too many of China's 6 million university graduates from entering a terrible job market. According to our research, 80% of Chinese have expressed confidence that the Government will implement the right policies to right the Chinese economy.

But there is more to be done, Rein says too:

What the Chinese government needs to do more of is make it easier for small, 3-15 person shops to get loans and start companies. 60% of job creation in the US in the last few decades has been in companies with fewer than 50 employees. It is still way too bureaucratic for small business owners. I am also worried about over investment in certain sectors -- it is filling up those huge real estate developments in the middle of nowhere with small businesses that will be key for making sure we don't have worthless infrastructure projects.

More at Seeking Alpha. Commercial Shaun Rein is also a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau . When you need him to share his insights, do get in touch.

Japan's export to China wins in crisis - Arthur Kroeber

Arthur Kroeber by Fantake via Flickr

The current global economic crisis not only has losers, it has also clear winners, says economic analyst Arthur Kroeber today in the Global and Mail. China's stimulus packages might help you greatly if you are in the right industry, where China wants to boosts its investments. The Globe and Mail:

What is very clear is the stimulus package is going to raise investment spending in China significantly,” said economist Arthur Kroeber, managing director of Dragonomics, a research and advisory firm in Beijing. Though he cautioned that opportunities are limited to specific niches and raw materials, Japan's export numbers this year reveal the impact Chinese demand can have on a country's sagging fortunes.

“If you look for example at the curve of Japanese exports to China as compared to Japanese exports everywhere else, they're heading in completely opposite directions. Exports to China are going up and exports to everywhere else are going down,” Mr. Kroeber said.

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Arthur Kroeber is also a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau . If you want him at your conference or meeting to explain how to win in the global economic crisis, do get in touch.

Limited interest in US real estate - Rupert Hoogewerf

Rupert Hoogewerf by Getty Images via Daylife

Media have been fascinated by Chinese investors touring American real estate to buy, but the impacts might just not be as big as huge as expected, warn Rupert Hoogewerf , the expert on wealthy Chinese, in Business Week. While US real estate might offer genuine bargains, legal restriction will stop most of the rich Chinese to actually invest in it.

Hoogewerf estimates China is home to more than 50,000 people with a net worth of over US$10 million, and more than 800,000 with a net worth of US$1 million. But Chinese law restricts individuals from taking more than US$50,000 out of the country in one year.

According to Hoogewerf, the restrictions mean buyers are predominantly traders, or those with businesses that export overseas. These people have stockpiles of US dollars and the savvy to navigate real estate overseas.

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Rupert Hoogewerf is also a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau . When you need him at your conference or meeting, do let us know.

Global China Chat on tourism, transcript 2

16:22

Fons Tuinstra: Welcome at the Global China Chat on tourism with Roy Graff, who will join us shortly from London. The GCC is hosted by Maria Korolov of the China Speakers Bureau. Our chat will start shortly. In case your screen does not update regularly, please press F5 to refresh your window.

16:22

fonstuinstra: The 2nd Global China Chat on tourism is now live and testing to start at the full hour www.chinaherald.net

16:22

16:24

16:27

Fons Tuinstra: Next clip about Chinese tourists to Taiwan

16:27