Tuesday, May 3, 2011

Labor shortage will cause stagnation - Zhang Juwei

Zhang JuweiZhang Juwei by Fantake via Flickr
China's economy will face stagnation in the short term because of the ongoing shortage of labor, tells CASS-professor Zhang Juwei state news agency Xinhua in a dispatch about the effect of aging, based on the latest results from the National Bureau of Statistics.
"The potential emergence of a labor shortage is likely to contribute to slower economic growth in the short term," said Zhang Juwei, professor and director of the Labor and Social Security Research Center at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.
China has already reaped the benefits of a demographic dividend, which is believed to have played a role in the country's economic breakthrough, having enjoyed the advantage of abundant cheap labor for decades.
"Wage increases are the most direct response to labor shortages. That will definitely squeeze the profit margin for some low value-added manufacturers," Zhang said.
More in Xinhua.

Zhang Juwei is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. When you need him at your meeting or conference, do get in touch.
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Thursday, February 24, 2011

The fading line between graduates and migrant workers - Zhang Juwei

zjwpic3Zhang Juwei
More graduates take up jobs that do not require education, while more migrant workers have a college education, tells professor Zhang Juwei of the Academy of Social Sciences in Beijing in PhBeta. "Demand and supply of the labor market are imbalanced.
“The largest group of graduates who’ve taken up jobs that do not require a college diploma has grow to be blue-collar workers,” says Zhang, who has been studying the labor difficulties in the country for a lengthy time. “Many other graduates have entered simple service sectors like security and housekeeping.”
Disproportionate availability of jobs across industries is the prime trigger of the trend, he says. The number of students graduating from colleges multiplied from 3.3 million in 2005 to 5.59 million in 2008. The graduates typically are employed in service sectors and function at office.
Zhang says the country’s relatively backward economic structure and inferior position in the world industrial chain is the trigger of this imbalance. China’s economic growth has relied heavily on the second industry(manufacturing and construction), which accounts for about half of the total economic output, while the tertiary industry accounts for only about 40 percent, significantly lower than in most developed countries.
Besides, China is still downstream in the global industrial chain, which deprives it of creating numerous jobs. “Many job opportunities including designing, analysis and development, and marketplaceing appeal to and will need individuals with higher qualifications but they’re not properly or adequately distributed in China, for several goods produced here are designed abroad.”
Take iPhone for instance. While foreign designers and researchers function out the best way to add value to the product and attract far more customers, Chinese workers only assemble and package them. That is why college graduates might have fewer opportunities in China than abroad. Having compared Chinese and foreign college graduates, Zhang discovered that much less than 3 percent of the country’s graduates are likely to begin their own business compared with 20 percent in developed countries. That dries up a lot of job opportunities, due to the fact if one individual starts a business, he/she could provide employment to numerous other people.
More in PhBeta.

Zhang Juwei is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. When you need him at your meeting or conference, do get in touch.

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Friday, October 29, 2010

Labor force will shrink after 2015 - Zhang Juwei

Zhang JuweiZhang Juwei by Fantake via Flickr
Are you already worried about the shortage of labor and its rising costs in China? Zhang Juwei of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS) tells Business Week the real labor problems are only developing after 2015.
The workforce—those from 15 to 64 years old—will plateau at almost 1 billion in 2015 and then start to shrink, figures the World Bank. These trends will help drive labor costs higher. "Over the next 10 years, this will become a serious problem," says Zhang Juwei, deputy director of the Institute of Population and Labor Economics at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.
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Do you want to hear more from one of China's leading academics on its labor force? Zhang Juwei is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. When you need him at your meeting or conference, do get in touch.

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Monday, September 6, 2010

Graduate unemployment a temporary problem - Zhang Juwei

Zhang JuweiZhang Juwei by Fantake via Flickr
China export industry might be suffering from labor shortage, but its large number of university graduates find it hard to get a job. A temporary problem, says deputy director Zhang Juwei of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS) in Business Week, although he is not underestimating the current problem.
In Business Week:
Already, the government is claiming a small victory of sorts, with the Education Ministry announcing recently that the rate of employment for recent graduates rose from 68 percent in 2009 to 72.2 percent this year. "As the economic structure changes, more suitable jobs for graduates will be created," says Zhang Juwei, deputy director at the Institute of Population and Labor Economics at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. Although Zhang may be right, that scenario is little comfort to the more than 25 percent of recent grads still hunting for work.
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Zhang Juwei is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you want to share his insights at your conference or meeting? Do get in touch.

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Friday, August 20, 2010

'Black children' a rural myth - Zhang Juwei

zjwpic2Zhang Juwei  by Fantake via Flickr
For a long time the existence of 'black children' at China's country side- offspring outside the country's one-child policy and not accounted for in its statistics - were seen as an illegal but useful counter measure for the aging problem and the shortage of cheap labor. But the rural fertility rate is not as high as many hope for, tells CASS-director Zhang Juwei in The Economist. 
The Economist:
The recent CASS report said the rate that would be expected if women had exactly as many children as allowed would be 1.47. The government uses the higher figure believing that many “black children” were missed by censuses. But the report disagreed, saying such serious underreporting was unlikely. It said data showed that the 150m-strong migrant population has a fertility rate of only 1.14 (similar to that of registered urban residents). This belies the common image of migrants as big producers of unauthorised offspring. Zhang Juwei of CASS believes the overall fertility rate is no higher than 1.6.
China cannot avoid its looming ageing problem, but these lower fertility estimates suggest its impact could be greater than officials have bargained for. The CASS study calls for a “prompt” change of policy to get the fertility rate up to around the “replacement level” of 2.1. The problem could be in persuading Chinese to have more children. In cities and wealthier rural areas, surveys found that the number of babies women said they actually wanted would produce a fertility rate well below 1.47.
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Zhang Juwei is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you want to share his insights at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch.

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