Imbalance, not overpopulation is our problem - Zhang Juwei

Aging, one of China's problems

Even China's mostly optimistic People's Daily, the Communist Party newspaper, admits the country has a problem with its demographics, after the results of the latest census appeared. Huge imbalances are China's largest problem, tells Zhang Juwei in MSNBC, no longer overpopulation.

“China doesn’t have overpopulation pressure,” said Zhang Juwei, the deputy chief of the Population and Labor Economics Institute at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.  “A structural imbalance is the real problem we’re facing.”
By that, Zhang means a whole host of problems that the one-child policy has engendered.

Image by Fantake via Flickr

Zhang Juwei

Key findings of the new census confirmed Zhang’s points, even prompting the official Communist Party newspaper, the People’s Daily, to say “a crisis looms” and giving rise to a catchphrase found in much of the Western media coverage, that “China will grow older before it gets richer.”

More in MSNBC.

Zhang Juwei is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. When you need him at your meeting or conference, do get in touch.

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'Black children' a rural myth - Zhang Juwei

Zhang Juwei  by Fantake via Flickr

For a long time the existence of 'black children' at China's country side- offspring outside the country's one-child policy and not accounted for in its statistics - were seen as an illegal but useful counter measure for the aging problem and the shortage of cheap labor. But the rural fertility rate is not as high as many hope for, tells CASS-director Zhang Juwei in The Economist. 
The Economist:

The recent CASS report said the rate that would be expected if women had exactly as many children as allowed would be 1.47. The government uses the higher figure believing that many “black children” were missed by censuses. But the report disagreed, saying such serious underreporting was unlikely. It said data showed that the 150m-strong migrant population has a fertility rate of only 1.14 (similar to that of registered urban residents). This belies the common image of migrants as big producers of unauthorised offspring. Zhang Juwei of CASS believes the overall fertility rate is no higher than 1.6.

China cannot avoid its looming ageing problem, but these lower fertility estimates suggest its impact could be greater than officials have bargained for. The CASS study calls for a “prompt” change of policy to get the fertility rate up to around the “replacement level” of 2.1. The problem could be in persuading Chinese to have more children. In cities and wealthier rural areas, surveys found that the number of babies women said they actually wanted would produce a fertility rate well below 1.47.

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Zhang Juwei is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you want to share his insights at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch.

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