China Speakers Bureau

Inflation undermines consumer confidence - Arthur Kroeber

Arthur Kroeber by Fantake via Flickr

China's government is placing its bets on increasing domestic spending by consumers, tells Arther Kroeber in The Guardian. But the inflation seems to be undermining the confidence among those consumers.

The 11.7% rise in food costs reflected growing demand, a shrinking pool of young workers – pushing up agricultural wages – and supply chain problems, said Arthur Kroeber of economic consultancy GaveKal-Dragonomics.
"In public, the officials like to talk about commodity prices, because it is always easier to blame problems on something outside," he said. "But if you look at what they are actually doing, I think it is pretty clearly understood that the sources of inflation are domestic."
That required tighter monetary policy and market reforms to improve efficiency, he said...

Kroeber said: "There's a consumption component that's very strong, but the retail sales number is going down. If you look at auto sales, they've slowed down a lot. Consumer confidence surveys show it has progressively weakened over the last six months.... The headline number is implausibly strong."
He said the data did not allow analysts to judge what was happening to consumer spending.

Inflation: China's nightmare - Shaun Rein

Shaun Rein by Fantake via Flickr

Shaun Rein addresses at CNBC China's largest nightmare, inflation, as real estate prices and wages go up. But he remains optimistic about the country's consumers, who keep on buying for the coming six months.

Shaun Rein is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch.

Labels: China, China Speakers Bureau, consumers, inflation, Shaun Rein

Can China deliver on its five-year plan? - Helen Wang

Helen Wang

Increased domestic consumption and sustainable growth are key in the country's new five-year plan. But can it deliver on two critical issues, beating inflation and affordable housing, author Helen Wang wonders in Forbes and on her weblog.

Reigning in inflation and providing affordable housing are important steps to foster a growing middle class. A major hindrance to increased Chinese consumption, however, is the country’s high saving rate, which reflects the underlying insecurity the Chinese feel about their future.
In writing my book The Chinese Dream: The Rise of the World’s Largest Middle Class and What It Means to You, I interviewed over 100 people in China. They are from all walks of life and are the new members of the Chinese middle class. The biggest concern they have is social security. Most people I talked to save 25-50 percent of their incomes for a rainy day, as I wrote here.
Victor Ku, a hotel manager in Guangzhou, told me that he had to save two-thirds of his income. “I have to pay for my own health expenses,” he said. “In China, we don’t have security. If you get sick, you can immediately become poor.”

Can the government deliver? Helen Wang: "Most likely. Judging from its past performance, I would not underestimate the Chinese government’s ability to deliver. Will China become a more open society? Sooner or later, when the Chinese government sees it is in its own interest to let go of control."

Helen Wang is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need her at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch.

Labels: China, China Speakers Bureau, consumers, Helen Wang

Consumption: slow but real change - Arthur Kroeber

Arthur Kroeber by Fantake via Flickr

For years China has been talking about refocusing its economy on domestic consumption, tells Arthur Kroeber in the New York Times. Now, real change is happening, although we should not expect too much too fast.
The New York Times:

“For years and years they’ve talked about rebalancing the economy and more household consumption,” Arthur Kroeber, the managing director of the Beijing forecasting firmDragonomics, said in an interview. The new plan, he said, “shows they’ve been listening to their economists and do have, in principle, a stronger commitment to trying to figure out how to create a more domestically oriented economy.”
But Mr. Kroeber said he did not expect quick results. “China’s so enormous that any shift like this is going to take longer than in a smaller country,” he said. “It’s the difference between a supertanker and a sailboat.”

Arthur Kroeber is also a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. When you need him at your meeting or onferene, do get in touch.

Labels: Arthur Kroeber, China, China Speakers Bureau, consumers

Failing in a booming consumer market - Shaun Rein

Shaun Rein by Fantake via Flickr

Home Depot and BestBuy were just two of the foreign companies in China that failed, while the consumer market is reaching record heights. Shaun Rein explains what they were missing in CNBC.
First, they get China's middle class wrong:

For one, Western brands need to understand there is no Chinese middle class in the American context. In the United States, the middle class tends to be a fairly static socio-economic group. People are born into it and their children and grandchildren tend to retain similar middle class habits like shopping atMacy's, driving Ford cars and visiting the Disney theme parks during vacations.
In China, however, the habits of the middle class are often described as anything but static. With many rags-to-riches stories doing their rounds across the mainland, many believe they, or their offspring, can also be wealthy. This optimism mirrors the conditions American Baby Boomers grew up in during the post World-War II era.

Even more complicated: Chinese want to be wealthy rather than middle class, avoiding typical middle class brands.
In CNBC Shaun Rein adds two more pitfalls.

Shaun Rein is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. When you need him at your meeting or conference, do get in touch.

Labels: BestBuy, China, China Speakers Bureau, consumers, Home Depot, Shaun Rein

The Chinese Dream - Helen Wang

Helen Wang by Fantake

The long-awaited book by Helen H. Wang The Chinese Dream: The Rise of the World's Largest Middle Class and What It Means to You is now available at Amazon. The book is endorsed by some of the bigger names in the China debate:
James Fallows of The Atlantic: "A fascinating look at one of the most dynamic forces shaping our world today"
Gady Epstein, Beijing Bureau chief of Forbes: "A truly valuable read for anyone who wants to do business in China.”
John Quelch, professor at Harvard Business School: " An unusual book, very readable and full of insight.”
Shaun Rein, managing director China Market Research Group: "A must-read for businesses that want to tap into this enormous market."

The formal launch will take place in California at the beginning of December.

Helen Wang is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need her at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch.

Labels: China, China Speakers Bureau, consumers, Helen Wang, middle class

Buy Ctrip and Yun! - Shaun Rein

Shaun Rein by Fantake via Flickr

Domestic consumption is growing and Shaun Rein tells at CNBC what companies investors should be looking at in the short term. While both McDonalds and Yum! are doing well, Shaun Rein prefers Yum! since they cater for different consumer markets with different price points, while McDonalds sticks to one price for all.
Travel is going to be important, as cars allow Chinese consumers to travel more domestically, young Chinese with cheaper cars, looking for budget hotels. Ctrip, China's successful travel portal would be an obvious investment.

Commercial
Shaun Rein is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch.

Labels: China, China Speakers Bureau, consumers, cTrip, KFC, McDonald's, Shaun Rein

Two, three decades of solid growth - Shaun Rein

Shaun Rein by Fantake via Flickr

Shaun Rein talked at the Asia Society in New York on how China's youth is going to be the economic fuel for two, three decades of solid growth. Youngsters might have less money per capita compared to consumers in the US, but since they do not save their money - unlike their parents - consumers are going to dictate the future. The analysis was recorded two years ago, but is still standing.

Commercial
Shaun Rein is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need his insights at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch.

Labels: China, China Speakers Bureau, consumers, Shaun Rein, youth

The China blame game - Shaun Rein

Shaun Rein Fantake via Flickr

Shaun Rein addresses, after the country got wrongly accused last Friday of blocking all of Google's services, the China blame game many Western media play at this clip in CNBC.In the debate Rein gets actually told he acts like an apologist for China, but rebuts this blame-game very well.
Rein explains how important it is to dig a bit deeper when Western media reports talk about China and why we should not take all they write for granted.

Commercial
Shaun Rein is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. When you need him at your meeting or conference, do get in touch.

Labels: China, China Speakers Bureau, consumers, economy, Google, Shaun Rein

Saving no longer tops China's agenda - Shaun Rein

Shaun Rein by Fantake via Flickr

Saving tops no longer the agenda of China's consumers as new generations kick in and see their disposable income grow, tells Shaun Rein Chinese media

"We interviewed 5,000 people under the age of 32 across China. They have an effective savings rate of zero," he said.

Not only are the young abandoning the thrifty habits of their parents and grandparents, they are also starting to follow the example of American consumers by buying on credit. Rein said the number of credit cards in China has jumped from 13.5 million to 200 million in just five years.

"Younger Chinese are unbelievably optimistic. That's why what you see is a secretary earning six or seven hundred dollars a month – they're the ones buying thousand dollar Gucci bags.".

Consumers have become the thriving force behind China's economic growth:

Rein also points to major demographic shifts. Women are increasingly taking the big spending decisions in Chinese households and in many cases are the major breadwinners. Women's concerns about product quality and food safety in particular are favoring high end, especially foreign brands. In the wake of the melamine scandal, wealthier young mothers even began to fly overseas to stock up on baby food.

The fastest growth in consumer spending, says Rein, is taking place in China's lower tier cities and rural areas. When the government gave subsidies to rural families to buy consumer durables as part of its stimulus package, fridges and cookers sold well, but televisions did not. The reason, Rein said, is that flat screen televisions were not subsidized, and people no longer wanted older box-style sets.

Commercial
Shaun Rein is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you want to share his insights at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch.

Labels: China, China Speakers Bureau, consumers, Public Speaking, Shaun Rein

Friday, April 15, 2011

Inflation undermines consumer confidence - Arthur Kroeber

Monday, April 11, 2011

Inflation: China's nightmare - Shaun Rein

Tuesday, March 22, 2011

Can China deliver on its five-year plan? - Helen Wang

Sunday, March 6, 2011

Consumption: slow but real change - Arthur Kroeber

Friday, February 25, 2011

Failing in a booming consumer market - Shaun Rein