China Speakers Bureau

Five books on China's economy - Victor Shih

BEIJING - DECEMBER 18: Chinese president Hu Ji...

State-driven by Getty Images via @daylife

Leading political economist Victor Shih reviews five books he recommends on China's economy for The Browser. Number one is Huang Yasheng's Capitalism with Chinese Characteristics: Entrepreneurship and the State.
Victor Shih:

The biggest misperception about China is that it’s a dynamic market economy – it isn’t. It’s a fast-growing, state-dominated economy with some dynamic, private-market aspects. If you look at investment, a main driver of growth, much of it is going to state-owned enterprises (SOEs) or shareholding companies dominated by state entities. Or it’s going directly to government investments carried out at a central or local level. The misperception has abated recently following Richard McGregor’s book on the Chinese Communist Party. People are realising that the party is still behind much of what happens in China.

And on Huang's book:

Victor Shih by Fantake via Flickr
I think Yasheng goes a little too far with some of his claims. But the broad outline is correct. There was a period of healthy organic growth in the 80s, driven by the de facto private sector. Many township and village enterprises were collectives or owned by the local government. But in reality they were private enterprises. This changed in the mid-90s, especially with the adoption of the ‘grasping the large and letting the small go’ policy that circumvented the special interests in the state sector. When Deng Xiaoping was alive, his executive vice premier, Zhu Rongji, wanted to bankrupt or merge many of the smaller state-owned enterprises into larger ones. It was a political tactic to further reform. And it worked.

More in Tne Browser.

Victor Shih is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. When you need him at your meeting or conference, do get in touch.

Labels: China, China Speakers Bureau, Deng Xiaoping, economy, Victor Shih, Zhu Rongji

As no.2, China cannot hide anymore - Arthur Kroeber

Arthur Kroeber by Fantake via Flickr

While China's rank as the second economy in the world means little in material terms, it has an important psychological effect on its international affairs, tells Arthur Kroeber in the Wall Street Journal:

But Arthur Kroeber, managing director of GaveKal Dragonomics Research in Beijing, said the No. 2 ranking may have an important psychological effect in China, where many continue to view the country as poor and believe it bears little responsibility for international affairs. In trade negotiations and international financial summitry, for instance, China often plays a peripheral role. The U.S. and Western Europe generally continue to set the global agenda. "When you're the No. 2 country in the world, you can't make the argument any longer" that China can be a follower, Mr. Kroeber said."From an economic diplomacy standpoint, there's no place to hide."
More and more, China is asserting its economic power, he noted, by agreeing to finance infrastructure and other projects in Africa, Latin America and Central Asia in exchange for a secure stream of oil, food and coal.

More other experts in the Wall Street Journal.

Arthur Kroeber is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. When you need him at your conference or meeting; do get in touch.

Labels: Arthur Kroeber, China, China Speakers Bureau, economy

Scary China bubble develops in the US - Shaun Rein

Shaun Rein by Fantake via Flickr

Import into China is growing, the Renminbi might slight appreciate after the Christmas shopping is done and the government is addressing overheating in real estate, tells Shaun Rein Bloomberg. But the real problem is the China IPO bubble developing in the US. (Clip at the bottom of this message).

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Shaun Rein is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. When you need him at your meeting or conference, do get in touch.

Labels: China, China Speakers Bureau, economy, renminbi, Shaun Rein

No trade backlash against China - Shaun Rein

Image by Fantake via Flickr

Is there a danger of a trade backlash from the US and Europe against China's as both Western economy continue to lose momentum. That risk is very low, says Shaun Rein in a comment on CNBC. On top of that, China has already started to diffuse any possible political problems.
Also more on China's recent announcement on "prudent" monetary action: no big moves expected.

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Shaun Rein is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. When you need him at your meeting or conference, do get in touch.

Labels: China, China Speakers Bureau, economy, Shaun Rein, trade deficit

Defining China's middle class - Helen Wang

Helen Wang by Fantake via Flickr

In her newly released book The Chinese Dream: The Rise of the World's Largest Middle Class and What It Means to You, Helen Wang gives names and faces to the hundreds of millions Chinese who have been shaking off poverty in the past decades. In Forbes she kicks off a discussion that has already been heated in the past: how to define China's middle class?

Since “middle class” is a Western concept, to a certain degree, it contains mythical elements for many Chinese. For example, they think middle class Westerners all own homes, drive cars, and travel for vacations. In addition, Chinese believe middle class people should have good manners and a tasteful lifestyle. They do not consider less-skilled professions such as waiting tables as middle class. In China, rural migrants who earn very low salaries mostly fill those jobs.

In The Chinese Dream, I use a combination of these definitions: urban professionals and entrepreneurs from all walks of life, who have college degrees and earn an annual income from $10,000 to $60,000. Over three hundred million people, or about 25 percent of China’s population, met these criteria in 2010.

Please let me know whether you agree with these criteria. How would you define it?

More in Forbes.
More on her book here.

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Helen Wang will be on Fox News 1270 Am talking about the Chinese middle class 9am Dec. 7th. She is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. when you need her at your meeting or conference, do get in touch.

Labels: China, China Speakers Bureau, economy, Helen Wang, middle class

Food price controls temporary - Shaun Rein

Shaun Rein by Fantake via Flickr

Shaun Rein goes on air in CNBC to explain the confines of the recent food controls imposed by the Chinese authorities to control inflation. Controlling the food prices and lowering the production costs - by killing the toll fees for food trucks - are only temporary measures to bring back confidence of the people, he says. He expects the controls to be limited in time for perhaps one or two months.
And meanwhile he has to address persisting myths on the importance of export for China's economy in the debate: percentage of export in GDP has dropped from 40 percent ten years ago to 20 percent now.

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Shaun Rein is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch.

Labels: China, China Speakers Bureau, economy, inflation, Shaun Rein

Economy needs a slow-down for repairs - Wang Jianmao

CEIBS China Europe International Business School

CEIBS in Shanghai via Wikipedia

China's economy needs a slow-down to repair its engines, says CEIBS economist Wang Jianmao in IPSnews, to get its three engines fixed, consumption, investments and export. "The government is too much focused on speed."

Just as a ship needs to slow down in order to repair its engines, our economy needs to slow down if it wants to tackle structural problems which endanger future growth."

There are different economic engines, like exports, investments and consumption. "The vital engine of consumption, however, is not working in China. If we delay repair the other two will stop at the same time. Not a single country can sustain growth when its economy keeps growing with double- digits."

More than 50 Chinese companies have now entered the Fortune-500 list, but that is not necessarily good news, the economist says:

"That doesn't mean they are productive", says Wang. "They have had access to unlimited amounts of cheap money. The interest rate for them has been lower than inflation. They keep on investing up to the point of serious overcapacity, which has a negative effect on both the returns and the prices. In other words, they waste people's money."

Big profits without adding value and creating jobs is a bad strategy for a country that urgently needs more consumer spending, says Wang. "Labour income as a share of gross domestic product has been declining for years. Instead of supporting capital-intensive industries, we need small and medium enterprises, in order to create labour-intensive jobs, up the value chain. We have the world's largest market for luxury cars, but at the same time too many people earn just the minimum wage."

More at IPS News.

by Fantake via Flickr

Wang Jianmao

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Wang Jianmao is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. When you need him at your meeting or conference, do get in touch.

Labels: CEIBS, China, China Speakers Bureau, economy, Wang Jianmao

Next 5-year plan: a leaner and greener economy - Shaun Rein

Shaun Rein by Fantake via Flickr

China's economy is going to be much leaner and greener, says Shaun Rein in CNBC, as the plans for the 12th five-year plan have been made in Beijing over the weekend. Green technology is already getting much financial support.
Economic growth might be more moderate, but no lower than 7 percent, Rein says. And the next two decades will see another 400 million Chinese citizens moving to cities, as the drive for urbanization continues and all hands are needed in the cities to face the upcoming aging problem.

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Shaun Rein is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your meeting or conference, do get in touch.

Labels: aging, China, China Speakers Bureau, economy, Shaun Rein, urbanization

China needs structural changes - Arthur Kroeber

Arthur Kroeber by Fantake via Flickr

As China's leadership gathers in Beijing to set its economic course for the coming five years, including its economic imbalance, Arthur Kroeber has a critical look at the country's achievements in the BBC.

"I think the leadership may be looking at the recent performance and over-estimating how good they really have done," said Arthur Kroeber, managing director of the research firm Dragonomics.

"They might also be under-estimating the need for structural reforms that will generate growth in the future."

More background at the BBC.

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Arthur Kroeber is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. When you need him at your meeting or conference, do get in touch.

Labels: Arthur Kroeber, China, China Speakers Bureau, economy

Why the bears are wrong on China - Arthur Kroeber

Arthur Kroeber Fantake via Flickr

Negative sentiments are out on China in the West again, but economic analyst Arthur Kroeber explains in the Sinica Podcast, lead by Kaiser Kuo, why those bears are wrong. "China is still different."
Most of th€e bears are Western critics, who have no clue about China, Kroeber argues. It is a complex, closed system, where efficiency does not have the same value as in developed nations, he says. "The country still has enough tailwind, as it still have to move 400, 500 million people into the economy. When China can compare to any country, it would be Japan in the 1960.
Many more interesting observations in the Sinica Podcast.

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Arthur Kroeber is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your conference? Do get in touch.

Labels: Arthur Kroeber, China, China Speakers Bureau, economy, Kaiser Kuo, real estate

Bull Shaun Rein takes on bear Andy Xie at CNBC

SHANGHAI, CHINA - NOVEMBER 24: The Tomson Riv...

Image by Getty Images via @daylife

Is there a bubble in China waiting to burst, for example in real estate? No, says Shaun Rein to Andy Xie in a debate at CNBC. Xie argued that real estate prices in China were overvalued 100 percent. Wrong says Rein.
"Our research show that 60 percent of the people in second and third tier cities are willing to buy property, up from 30 percent not so long ago," tell Shaun Rein. "There is a lot of liquidity in the market."

Introductory opening exchanges can be found here

Shaun Rein by Fantake via Flickr

Concluding remarks here.

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Shaun Rein is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. When you need him at your meeting or
conference, do let us know.

Labels: China, China Speakers Bureau, economy, Public Speaking, real estate, Shaun Rein

Helen Wang joins China Speakers Bureau

Helen Wang by Fantake via Flickr

Author and consultant Helen Wang has joined the China Speakers Bureau. Born in Hangzhou and since twenty years living in the US, she has become a leading expert on China's middle class. Her book "The Chinese Dream" will be published shortly.
Her Chinese roots and American experience puts her into an excellent position to explain the rise of this new economic force in China, both its chances and its challenges.
Helen Wang has previously at a prestigious think tank, Institute for the Future, and consulted for Fortune 500 companies including Apple Computer, Oracle, and Bank of America.
Her book "The Chinese Dream" is expected next month.

Labels: business, China, China Speakers Bureau, economy, Helen Wang, middle class

Chinese women, the new spending force

Changing families values

Chinese women are becoming a new force in domestic consumption as they command half of the household budget, writes Newsweek, who tapped into the brains of Tom Doctoroff, Shaun Rein and Paul French, all speakers for the China Speakers Bureau.
Shaun Rein on the figures:

For Western companies, the rise of the female consumer in China is a welcome change. For years, multinationals ignored Chinese women because their contribution to household income was so small—a fact “that’s changed dramatically,” says Shaun Rein, managing director of the China Market Research Group. In the 1950s women contributed just 20 percent of household income. That rose to about 40 percent in the 1990s and then reached 50 percent last year, according to Rein....
Rein’s firm recently found that women younger than 35 are the most optimistic segment in China, with a whopping 80 percent of the 3,500 women surveyed saying they’ll spend more in the second half of 2010 than they did in the first half. With trends like these, Chinese women may bring new meaning to the term “the power of the purse.”

But those women might have other ambitions than the women in the US or Europe today, says Paul French:

At the same time, advertisers are finding that Chinese women crave security, and that portraying women in advertising as fully independent may not work. Paul French, founder of Shanghai market research firm Access Asia, says women want job success, a husband, and 1.0 children with a villa in the suburbs, so advertisements are “similar to cupcake ads in America in 1953,” he says. “Let’s create the perfect family.”

And warns Tom Doctoroff:

“Chinese women are not indulgent consumers,” says Tom Doctoroff, greater China CEO at the advertising agency JWT.

More in Newsweek.
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Tom Doctoroff, Shaun Rein and Paul French all belong to the Chinese Speakers Bureau. Do you need one of them - or all together - at your meeting or conference, do get in touch.

Labels: China, China Speakers Bureau, economy, Paul French, Public Speaking, Shaun Rein, Tom Doctoroff

Economy: picking up or double dip - newsletter

William Bao Bean by Fantake via Flickr

The China Speakers Bureau Newsletter for August 2010 is out and we wonder what economies are picking up and who is going for a double dip. Also news from our speakers, our top-10 of most sought speakers and of course some propaganda for our publishing service.
You can read the newsletter here, but it is of course better to register on this page to guarantee regular delivery.

Labels: China, China Speakers Bureau, economy, Public Speaking

All is not yet well for China's economy - Wang Jianmao

Wang Jianmao Fantake via Flickr

Economic growth seems to be on track and China has passed Japan as the second largest economy in the world, still stiff measures from the government are needed to avoid a second dip, warns CEIBS economy professor Wang Jianmao in CIB-magazine.
Historical statistics on economic growth have been quietly adjusted again, suggesting the economy was severely overheated just before the global financial crisis took off, showing a seriously overheated economy, writes Wang Jianmao.

The best scenario of proactive adjustment is a U-shaped process of maintaining a moderate growth rate of 7-8% during 2010-2012 and then returning to the potential growth rate of about 9% in 2013. The worst scenario of reactive adjustment is a W-shaped process of propping up double-digit growth until 2012 and then unavoidably diving for a second dip below 5% or even 4%.

The decision-makers in China should remember the lessons of reactive adjustment and hard landings of the past. China's economy experienced full-blown overheating during 1984 and 1985, with actual growth rate significantly higher than the potential one. After attempts at cooling the economy, the growth rate dropped to 8.8% in 1986, down from 13.5% in 1985, which was similar to the recent shrink in the growth rate from 14.4% in 2007 to 10.2% in 2008 and to 9.1% in 2009. However, the adjustment efforts taken then were not seen through to the end, causing the growth rate to rebound to 11.6% in 1987 and 11.3% in 1988. Then, a second dip became unavoidable and China eventually plunged into a hard landing with a growth rate as low as 4.1% in 1989 and 3.8% in 1990.

Since China plays a prominent role in the global economy, a second dip of the Chinese economy would mean a second dip for the world. Therefore, a "slow" U-shaped recovery of the Chinese economy should be interpreted as a positive sign indicating that China is moving along the right path. A quick V-shaped recovery is only possible for those countries not severely burdened by flawed development models. Unfortunately China does not belong to this group.

More in the CIB magazine

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Professor Wang Jianmao is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your conference or meeting? Do get in touch.

Labels: CEIBS, China, China Speakers Bureau, economy, government, Wang Jianmao

Focus on quality growth - Arthur Kroeber

Arthur Kroeber by Fantake via Flickr

China should focus more on the quality of its economic growth and less on the quantity, says economic analyst Arthur Kroeber in ABS-CBN news, now China is getting its rightful place in the world's economic pick order.

The passing of the baton to China is inevitable, said Arthur Kroeber, managing director of the Dragonomics consultancy in Beijing -- but the far more important issue is the quality of its economic growth.

Policymakers need to take a stand against a growth-at-any-cost mentality that, according to Kroeber, "is still very alive throughout the government bureaucracy".

"In fact, insisting on that high growth rate (above 8%) may introduce more distortions into the economy and we really need to focus on how we improve the quality of growth," said Kroeber.

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Arthur Kroeber is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your meeting of conference? Do get in touch.

Labels: Arthur Kroeber, China, China Speakers Bureau, economy

The China blame game - Shaun Rein

Shaun Rein Fantake via Flickr

Shaun Rein addresses, after the country got wrongly accused last Friday of blocking all of Google's services, the China blame game many Western media play at this clip in CNBC.In the debate Rein gets actually told he acts like an apologist for China, but rebuts this blame-game very well.
Rein explains how important it is to dig a bit deeper when Western media reports talk about China and why we should not take all they write for granted.

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Shaun Rein is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. When you need him at your meeting or conference, do get in touch.

Labels: China, China Speakers Bureau, consumers, economy, Google, Shaun Rein

Take care when investing in China - Shaun Rein

Shaun Rein by Fantake via Flickr

While mostly optimistic about China's economic future, Shaun Rein warns in Forbes against too lighthearted investments in China's companies, even when they are listed in the US.

Why? First, Chinese company stock prices remain very volatile, because of hedge funds. There are only several dozen good Chinese companies traded on the New York Stock Exchange and NASDAQ, so hedge funds control an inordinate amount of Chinese equity. If they grow bearish or need liquidity, they might sell stakes quickly. Second, despite some improvement, the transparency of Chinese firms remains questionable... Many Chinese companies keep three sets of books, one for the tax bureau, one for investors and one for senior executives.

More warnings in Forbes.

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Do you need more advice on where to invest in China? Shaun Rein is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau and happy to speak at your meeting or conference. Interested? Do get in touch.

Labels: China, China Speakers Bureau, economy, investments, Shaun Rein

Internet censorship as an economic indicator - Paul Denlinger

Paul Denlinger via Flickr

Business analyst Paul Denlinger makes at his weblog China Vortex a smart connection between the recent upsurge in internet crackdowns and the expected economic uncertainty caused by an expected economic downturn and China's leadership swap in 2012. China's leaders turn to more control in times of economic uncertainty:

When you put this into the Chinese context of domestic politics, and see that the Chinese leadership will be handed over to a new president and premier in 2012, what is happening on the Internet makes perfect sense. The current leadership of President Hu Jintao and Premier Wen Jiabao are due for retirement then, and will hand over leadership to a new leadership team. With two years left in their term, it is safe to say that world markets look unstable, with another wall of debt about to hit the US and Europe in the next year, further dampening consumer spending in the west. How can they manage a smooth handover without things getting unstable?

More at the China Vortex.

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Paul Denlinger is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. When you want to share his insights at your meeting or conference, do get in touch.

Labels: China, China Speakers Bureau, economy, Paul Denlinger, Public Speaking

Friday, February 18, 2011

Five books on China's economy - Victor Shih

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Monday, February 14, 2011

As no.2, China cannot hide anymore - Arthur Kroeber

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Friday, December 10, 2010

Scary China bubble develops in the US - Shaun Rein

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Monday, December 6, 2010

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Wednesday, November 24, 2010

Defining China's middle class - Helen Wang

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Monday, November 22, 2010

Food price controls temporary - Shaun Rein

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Friday, November 19, 2010

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Monday, October 18, 2010

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Friday, October 15, 2010

China needs structural changes - Arthur Kroeber

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Friday, September 24, 2010

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Thursday, September 9, 2010

Helen Wang joins China Speakers Bureau

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Saturday, August 28, 2010

Chinese women, the new spending force

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Wednesday, August 25, 2010

Economy: picking up or double dip - newsletter

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Tuesday, August 17, 2010

All is not yet well for China's economy - Wang Jianmao

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Wednesday, August 11, 2010

Focus on quality growth - Arthur Kroeber

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Monday, August 2, 2010

The China blame game - Shaun Rein

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Wednesday, July 21, 2010

Take care when investing in China - Shaun Rein

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Saturday, July 17, 2010

Internet censorship as an economic indicator - Paul Denlinger

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