Wednesday, April 13, 2011

Three reasons why China's banking system is fragile - Victor Shih

victor shihVictor Shih by Fantake via Flickr
Despite three trillion US dollar in foreign reserves, China's banking system is more fragile than you would think when you look at that figure only, tells Victor Shih at the Institute for New Economic Thinking. Much of China's wealth is concentrated with very few. (h/t Creditwritedowns.com)

Victor Shih is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. When you need him at your meeting or conference, do get in touch.



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Wednesday, March 23, 2011

Military affairs advance - Most-sought speakers in March 2011

Wendell_MinnickWendell Minnick by Fantake via Flickr
Shaun Rein regained the first position again from Kaiser Kuo in a very busy media month. Mostly we have no complaints on how our top-speakers perform, but this March shows we are in the top-season for business in China.
Fastest rising star this month is our prominent defense speaker Wendell Minnick,, the Asia bureau chief of Defense news. Initially, and not surprising, the China Speakers Bureau focused on China's economic development and business affairs.
But China as a military force is getting more attention, so we were happy to include Wendell Minnick last year in our list of prominent speakers. And we can announce that his colleague Reuben F. Johnson, working amongst others for Jane's weekly and the Weekly Standard, has agreed to join us - although his profile is still under construction at this stage.
Two veteran speakers returned to this month's top-10: Jasper Becker and Paul French. A few new books on Mao's famine have hit the shelves, so the author of the Hungry Ghosts, Jasper Becker, is getting quite some hits. And Paul French has been relatively quiet for at least a month, so we expect his new book to get out soon too.

Without further delay, here is our list of top-10 most-sought speakers for March (February in brackets)
Victor Shih (no. 10)
  1. Shaun Rein (2)
  2. Kaiser Kuo (1)
  3. Paul French (-)
  4. Arthur Kroeber (4)
  5. Tom Doctoroff (5)
  6.  Wendell Minnick (7)
  7. William Overholt (3)
  8. Helen Wang (6)
  9. Jasper Becker (-)
  10. Victor Shih (9)
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Tuesday, March 22, 2011

China: less of a miracle - Victor Shih

victor shihVictor Shih by Fantake via Flickr
China's three trillion US dollar of foreign reserves and other assets might look impressive, but when you withdraw the country's debts and other liabilities, it looks no longer that special, tells Victor Shih at the US-China Institute. Local companies and governments hold those debts.

Victor Shih is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your meeting of conference? Do get in touch.





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Friday, February 18, 2011

Five books on China's economy - Victor Shih

BEIJING - DECEMBER 18: Chinese president Hu Ji...State-driven by Getty Images via @daylife
Leading political economist Victor Shih reviews five books he recommends on China's economy for The Browser. Number one is Huang Yasheng's Capitalism with Chinese Characteristics: Entrepreneurship and the State.
Victor Shih:
The biggest misperception about China is that it’s a dynamic market economy – it isn’t. It’s a fast-growing, state-dominated economy with some dynamic, private-market aspects. If you look at investment, a main driver of growth, much of it is going to state-owned enterprises (SOEs) or shareholding companies dominated by state entities. Or it’s going directly to government investments carried out at a central or local level. The misperception has abated recently following Richard McGregor’s book on the Chinese Communist Party. People are realising that the party is still behind much of what happens in China.
And on Huang's book:
victor shihVictor Shih by Fantake via Flickr
I think Yasheng goes a little too far with some of his claims. But the broad outline is correct. There was a period of healthy organic growth in the 80s, driven by the de facto private sector. Many township and village enterprises were collectives or owned by the local government. But in reality they were private enterprises. This changed in the mid-90s, especially with the adoption of the ‘grasping the large and letting the small go’ policy that circumvented the special interests in the state sector. When Deng Xiaoping was alive, his executive vice premier, Zhu Rongji, wanted to bankrupt or merge many of the smaller state-owned enterprises into larger ones. It was a political tactic to further reform. And it worked.
More in Tne Browser.

Victor Shih is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. When you need him at your meeting or conference, do get in touch.
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Tuesday, October 19, 2010

Xi Jinping: the compromise candidate - Victor Shih

Xi Jinping 习近平Xi Jinping via Wikipedia
After the elevation of Xi Jinping, son of the revolutionary hero Xi Zhongxun, into China's military comite, analysts try to find out what his agenda is. That is still speculation, says Victor Shih in The Global and Mail
“Xi Jinping was a compromise candidate, a princeling who could be sure to defend the regime's interests,” said Victor Shih, a professor of Chinese politics at Northwestern University. “He hasn't announced much of his own agenda yet. We haven't seen, in terms of policies, what he's going to propose."
Many more interesting background in the thorough piece by Mark Mackinnon. 

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Victor Shih is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch.
victor shihVictor Shih by Fantake via Flickr


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Tuesday, August 17, 2010

Most-sought speakers for August 2010

shaunreinShaun Rein by Fantake via Flickr
The summer holidays and the summer heat forced many to lay low - we noticed from the traffic to our websites - with one exception: Shaun Rein. Almost no day passed without Shaun sharing his views on mainstream TV-stations or on Forbes and Business Week. No wonder he rose to the first place again in our top-10 of most-sought speakers for August 2010. (You can see our listing for July here.)
Shaun Rein covered a wide range of subjects: sex and porn, the stress test for banks, the China blame game of Western media,  the lack of savings, and many more subjects. (See also our speakers' corner).
Kaiser Kuo has his first full month as director at China's leading search engine Baidu. And although we miss his opinion leadership in the mainstream media, he still maintained a firm second place. Otherwise, for those who are following our speakers, not that many surprises in this month's top-10 (July 2010 in brackets).
  1. Shaun Rein (3)
  2. Kaiser Kuo (1)
  3. Arthur Kroeber (4)
  4. Tom Doctoroff (10)
  5. Rupert Hoogewerf or Hurun (8)
  6. William Overholt (-)
  7. Paul French (5)
  8. Wendell Minnick (-)
  9. Jasper Becker (-)
  10. Victor Shih (6)


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Friday, July 30, 2010

Where China is hiding its debts - Victor Shih

shih08_3_1Victor Shih Fantake via Flickr
Professor Victor Shih from the Northwestern University is the main investigator, looking for China's sky high debts after its financial rescue operation. In Business Week Shih explains where China is hiding its debts, and why there might be more than even he can find, especially at the 8,000 local investment companies, who might have borrowed more than they can pay back.
Figuring out what projects the LICs have financed and how healthy they are is hard. Shih says LICs in the western city of Yinchuan, the capital of Ningxia autonomous region, have helped bankroll a building spree. New luxury villas and high-rise residential complexes, as well as a huge new soccer stadium, adorn the city. A science and technology center, a museum, and a library each occupy several football fields' worth of turf, while an almost-finished skyscraper resembles New York's Empire State Building. It's pretty ambitious for a region that depends on cash transfers from Beijing for 70 percent of its total revenues. Shih estimates Ningxia's debt at $15 billion—75 percent of the region's economy. "A soccer stadium in the middle of nowhere is not going to generate much cash flow," he says. "Without massive central government subsidies, I think many of these projects will not generate enough cash even to pay interest on their loans."
More in Business Week.

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Victor Shih is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. When you want to share his insights at your meeting or conference, do get in touch.

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