Sunday, May 22, 2011

China seeks Arctic shipping lanes - Wendell Minnick

An armed suspected pirate looks over the edge ...Suspected pirates via Wikipedia
While the world is fearing the melting polar is, China sees new opportunities for Arctic shipping lanes, writes defense expert Wendell Minnick on his weblog. Other sea lanes could become potentially problematic.
Beijing has had security concerns over the sea lanes of communication. China is dependent on oil and gas shipments from the Middle East. Potential choke points in the Malacca Strait and territorial disputes in the South China Sea have added to the concern. For the first time in China’s modern naval history, it has taken up anti-piracy patrols in the Gulf of Aden to ward off Somali pirates.

Though an Arctic passage would do little to solve security concerns over oil and gas shipments from the Middle East, it would provide a shorter route for China’s exports to Europe. It is estimated that the maritime route between Asia and Europe could be reduced from 15,000 miles to less than 8,000 miles, Wang Kuan-Hsiung, a researcher at National Taiwan Normal University, said.
More at Wendell Minnick's weblog.

Wendell Minnick is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. When you need him at your meeting or confer
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Monday, May 2, 2011

Taiwan builds stealthy catamarans for Strait - Wendell Minnick

Wendell_MinnickWendell Minnick by Fantake via Flickr
Taiwan plans to build its first prototype of a stealthy 500-ton catamaran corvette in 2012 under the Hsun Hai (Swift Sea) program, Deputy Defense Minister Lin Yu-pao told legislators in April, according to Wendell Minnick on his weblog.
A Taiwan defense source said there are initial plans to build 10 Swift Seas armed with anti-ship missiles.

“We have already finished the research design and the contract design, and the bidding process will begin in 2012 with delivery in 2014,” he said.

The vessels will be deployed in the Taiwan Strait to break a Chinese naval blockade or stop an invasion fleet, he said.

..
Local media reports have dubbed the Swift Sea vessel the “carrier-killer” in response to China’s planned deployment of its first aircraft carrier, the Ukrainian Varyag, expected to begin sea trials this summer. Beijing has not officially named the ship yet. Western guesses include Shi Lang, after the admiral who conquered Taiwan in 1681, and Liu Huaqing, after the father of China’s modern navy.


However, the carrier will most likely be based in the South China Sea and not be deployed against Taiwan except off the east of the island during a conflict, said the Taiwan defense source.


More on Wendell Minnick's weblog.

Wendell Minnick is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch.
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Tuesday, April 26, 2011

China tested its VSTOL fighter - Wendell Minnick

BARENTS SEA. On board the Aircraft Carrier Adm...Image via Wikipedia
Military technology of China's air force has taken another step as online rumor suggest a test flight by the J-18 Red Eagle vertical short takeoff and landing (VSTOL) fighter, writes Wendell Minnick in Defense News.
China's defense industry is largely opaque and it is difficult to substantiate Internet chatter. However, Chinese-language military blogs reported the first test flight of the stealthy J-20 Black Eagle fighter in January, much to the surprise of the Western media.

Now there are reports emerging of a test flight of the J-18. Tests were supposedly conducted earlier this month and the fighter is similar to the Sukhoi Su-33 carrier-based fighter.
"In 2005, a Chinese aviation industry source told me the Chengdu Aircraft Corporation was considering a F-35B-like program," said Richard Fisher, vice president of the Washington-based International Assessment and Strategy Center. "Given the PLA's naval power projection ambitions, it is probable there is VSTOL or STOVL [short takeoff and vertical landing] fighter program."
More in Defense News

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Taiwan arms purchases help US economy - Wendell Minnick

MH-60L Direct Action Penetrator (DAP)Image via Wikipedia
Ending US weapon sales to Taiwan might also end a very lucrative trade that has helped the US economy greatly, writes Wendell Minnick in Defense News. Taiwan has spent USD 16,5 billion over the past five years, but calls to end the trade become louder.
In January, a roundtable discussion at the University of Virginia’s Miller Center of Public Affairs recommended the U.S. “re-examine” continued arms sales to Taiwan in an effort to improve ties with China. Members of the roundtable included Joseph Prueher and Timothy Keating, both retired U.S. Pacific Command commanders, and James Shinn, a national intelligence officer for East Asia at the Central Intelligence Agency. The roundtable report said arms sales to Taiwan had damaged Sino-U.S. ties and had become a “vicious circle.” The report further recommended that Washington re-evaluate the Taiwan Relations Act.
But a report has now detailed the economic benefits:
The CRS report, “Taiwan: Major U.S. Arms Sales Since 1990,” by Shirley Kan, indicates that Taiwan arms sales generate big revenue for U.S. defense companies despite the absence of a defense treaty with Taiwan. In 2007, Taiwan bought $3.7 billion in U.S. arms; in 2008, $6.4 billion; and in 2010, $6.4 billion. No sales to Taiwan were approved in 2009. Among customers of U.S. arms worldwide, Taiwan ranked fourth behind Egypt, Israel and Saudi Arabia from 2002 to 2009.



From 2000 to 2010, under the U.S. Foreign Military Sales program, Taiwan procured Patriot Advanced Capability-3 missile defense systems, UH-60M Black Hawk helicopters, Harpoon missiles, Osprey-class mine-hunting ships, Kidd-class destroyers, AIM-120 ad­vanced medium-range air-to-air missiles, Standard Missile-2 Block IIIA air defense missiles, a surveillance radar program for early warning of Chinese missile launches, AH-64D Apache Longbow attack helicopters and P-3C Orion anti-submarine patrol aircraft.


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More in Wendell Minnick's article.

Wendell Minnick is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. When you need him at your meeting or conference, do get in touch.
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Wednesday, March 23, 2011

Military affairs advance - Most-sought speakers in March 2011

Wendell_MinnickWendell Minnick by Fantake via Flickr
Shaun Rein regained the first position again from Kaiser Kuo in a very busy media month. Mostly we have no complaints on how our top-speakers perform, but this March shows we are in the top-season for business in China.
Fastest rising star this month is our prominent defense speaker Wendell Minnick,, the Asia bureau chief of Defense news. Initially, and not surprising, the China Speakers Bureau focused on China's economic development and business affairs.
But China as a military force is getting more attention, so we were happy to include Wendell Minnick last year in our list of prominent speakers. And we can announce that his colleague Reuben F. Johnson, working amongst others for Jane's weekly and the Weekly Standard, has agreed to join us - although his profile is still under construction at this stage.
Two veteran speakers returned to this month's top-10: Jasper Becker and Paul French. A few new books on Mao's famine have hit the shelves, so the author of the Hungry Ghosts, Jasper Becker, is getting quite some hits. And Paul French has been relatively quiet for at least a month, so we expect his new book to get out soon too.

Without further delay, here is our list of top-10 most-sought speakers for March (February in brackets)
Victor Shih (no. 10)
  1. Shaun Rein (2)
  2. Kaiser Kuo (1)
  3. Paul French (-)
  4. Arthur Kroeber (4)
  5. Tom Doctoroff (5)
  6.  Wendell Minnick (7)
  7. William Overholt (3)
  8. Helen Wang (6)
  9. Jasper Becker (-)
  10. Victor Shih (9)
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Tuesday, March 8, 2011

Taiwan spy case focuses on disrupting communications - Wendell Minnick

Wendell_MinnickrevWendell Minnick
The high-profile Taiwanese spy general Lo keeps on rocking the military establishment. In the Wall Street Journal Wendell Minnick gives his take on the largest spy case in 50 years in Taiwan.
The Wall Street Journal:
Wendell Minnick, the Asia bureau chief of Defense News, an independent defense trade periodical, said he believed that Gen. Lo could have caused damage in other ways because he had access to sensitive international military cables while working as an attaché. He may also have worked as a "talent spotter" recruiting other officers to spy for China, Mr. Minnick said.
China has long sought details of the Po Sheng program. The technology featured prominently in a 2008 case in which an employee at a U.S. Department of Defense agency, Gregg Bergersen, gave out secret information about the program to a naturalized U.S. citizen from Taiwan named Kuo Tai-shen with the understanding the leaks would lead to business opportunities for Mr. Bergersen. But Mr. Kuo sent the information to a Chinese official in Guangzhou, according to an affidavit relating to the case. He was sentenced to more than 15 years in prison while Mr. Bergersen received a 57-month sentence and three years supervised release.
The Chinese focus on the Po Sheng program shows its intense interest and progress in developing the capability to disrupt Taiwanese communications ahead of an attack, according to Mr. Minnick. He added the arrest itself was also an impressive achievement for Taiwan's counterintelligence.
Wendell Minnick is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. When you need him at your meeting or conference, do get in touch.
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Friday, February 25, 2011

Taiwan still looking into espionage damage - Wendell Minnick

Ministry of National Defense (Republic of China)Ministry of Defense, Taipei via Wikipedia
Taiwan is still trying to assess the amount of damage caused by one of the largest espionage case, after the late-January arrest of General Lo Hsien-che, who ran the communications, electronics and information division of Army Command Headquarters, writes Wendell Minnick in Defense News.

The one-star general stands accused of compromising the Po Sheng (Broad Victory) C4I program. Po Sheng includes a fiber-optic communication cable network and procedures for sharing information with U.S. Pacific Command.
In Defense News:
Ministry of National Defense (MND)... officials announced his arrest Feb. 8, and said a damage assessment team is looking into how much Lo may have given China.
U.S. officials are pressuring Taiwan to be more transparent about the damage allegedly caused by Lo. The consequences could include losing the Pentagon's confidence in Taiwan's ability to protect U.S. defense technologies sold to the self-rule island. Taiwan is pushing Washington hard for the release of new F-16 fighter aircraft and is awaiting delivery of Patriot PAC-3 air defense missile systems and P-3C Orion maritime patrol aircraft. All are technologies China is anxious to learn more about.
One former Taiwan defense attaché said the MND is unlikely to dig too deeply. There's a long tradition of "making a big issue small" (da shi hua xiao) in Taiwan's military bureaucracy, the former attaché said.
"Even if the top leader asks whoever is in charge of the investigation to be completely honest, from the second level down, people will most likely try to make it sound less serious," he said.
More in Defense News.
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Wendell Minnick is currently preparing a book on Chinese espionage that is due coming summer. He is also a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch.

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Friday, February 11, 2011

Russian fighter jet "no option for China" - Wendell Minnick

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The Russian fighter jet MiG-29k is "no option" for China's former Soviet-built carrier Varyag, told a Russian defense official at the 2011 Aero India air show in Bangalore, writes Wendell Minnick in Defense News.
"This is not an option for China's aircraft carrier program," the Russian defense industry official said, citing unresolved differences with China over intellectual property in the Su-27/J-11B fighter scandal.
In 2009, Russian officials accused China of stealing the blueprints for the Su-27 to produce an indigenous variant, the J-11B. There also have been allegations that the design for China's new L-15 advanced trainer jet was copied directly from Russia's Yak-130.
"The Chinese are going with an indigenous option for their carrier aircraft, most likely a modified variant of the Su-33," the industry official said.
More in Defense News.

Wendell Minnick is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. When you need him at your meeting or conference, do get in touch.
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Wednesday, February 2, 2011

China's counterstealth weapons - Wendell Minnick


040824-F-3431H-090 (Aug. 24, 2004)A US Air For...
The F-117 via Wikipedia
Much attention last month for China's first stealth fighter plane, and whether is was based on stolen US technology. Too little attention China's counterstealth technology got, like missiles to shoot down those planes, writes Wendell Minnick in Defense News:
China’s top air-to-air missile research institute has invested considerable effort in designing such missiles.


New imagery available on Google Earth indicates China built a full-scale mock-up of the now-retired F-117 stealth fighter at the Luoyang Optoelectro Technology Development Center (LOEC) in Henan province. (View the mock F-117 at 34 degrees 39 minutes and 44.24 seconds north latitude and 112 degrees 25 min­utes and 45.19 seconds east longitude.)

A former U.S. defense attaché based in Beijing said the appearance of the mock-up is not surprising, noting that China has also built mock-ups of the F-22 Raptor and F-35 Lightning II for study.


In Minnick's article more on the question whether U.S. Air Force F-117 stealth fighter downed in Serbia in 1999 is in Chinese hands.
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Friday, January 21, 2011

Taiwan's missiles "no message for China or US" - Wendell Minnick

Presidents Obama and Hu JintaoNo message for them by rebuildingdemocracy
Taiwan test-fired eleven types of missiles last Tuesday, but denies any link with China's Hu Jintao's state visit to the US, writes Wendell Minnick in Defense News.
Taiwan test-fired missiles of 11 different types during an exercise on Jan. 18 at the Jiupeng Missile Test Range in Pingtung County on Taiwan's southeast coast. The tests coincided with Hu's visit to Washington to meet with U.S. President Barack Obama.
A Taiwan military official denied the tests were an attempt to send a political message to Beijing or Washington. He said the tests were scheduled long before the announcement of Hu's visit.
There was a political message, Minnick write, but only for domestic use, after the J-20 fighter test flight in China. Unfortunately, that message misfired, as many of the missiles did not hit target:
Taiwan President Ma Ying-jeou expressed disappointment and called for the military to better prepare itself in the future. A Taiwan military official expressed concern over Ma's remarks and described the test as a complex exercise involving different elements of the Air Force, Army and Marine Corps from around the island.
The tests were a rare event that included virtually every air-to-air and surface-to-air missile in Taiwan's arsenal minus the AIM-120 AMRAAM and Patriot PAC-2 missile systems, said another military official. The last public missile test at Jiupeng was in 2002 and was of a much smaller scale, he said.
More in Defense News.
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Sunday, December 12, 2010

Military pondering combat plane for space - Wendell Minnick

A Chinese Sukhoi Su-27UBK, a twin-seat version...Not only for space via Wikipedia
A supersonic combat aircraft is next on the wishlist of China's aviation industry, defense specialist Wendell Minnick writes in Defense News. China is looking for a new bomber in the 21th century, meaning also militarizing space.
Revealed at the recent 8th China International Aviation and Aerospace Exhibition (2010 Zhuhai Airshow), the winners of the 4th National Future Aircraft Design Competition were the Merlin fighter-bomber, SkyNet airship, Wolf Rider unmanned combat aircraft and the Shadow Dragon unmanned bomber. Though the four design concepts are well beyond China’s technical capabilities and “smack of science fiction fantasy,” all four represent a real effort on the part of the People’s Liberation Army to militarize space, said Ian Easton, a specialist in Chinese aeronautics at the Washington-based Project 2049 Institute.
More information on the different models (including pictures) at Wendell Minnick's weblog.
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Friday, December 10, 2010

Taiwan to mass produce cruise missiles - Wendell Minnick

A Raytheon Tomahawk Block IV cruise missile du...A Tomahawk cruise missile  via Wikipedia
Taiwan is preparing for a mass production of two kinds of cruise missiles to set off against the perceived threat from the mainland, writes defense expert Wendell Minnick in Defense News. The US has been trying, for now in vain, to kill the program.
Taiwan's Deputy Defense Minister Chao Shih-chang told legislators on Nov. 8 that production for the two missiles [ of the Hsiung Feng 2E (HF-2E) land attack cruise missile (LACM) and the Hsiung Feng 3 (HF-3) anti-ship cruise missile (ASCM)] had already begun. Chao made the comments during questioning by the Legislative Yuan's Foreign and Defense Committee. In response to a question about the missiles by legislator Lin Yu-fang of the ruling party Kuomintang (KMT), Chao said the programs, code-named the Chichun (Lance Hawk) and Chuifeng (Chasing Wind), were "progressing smoothly."...
China continues to deploy more short-range ballistic missiles (SRBM) and new cruise missiles along its coast targeting Taiwan. The only alternative is to deploy a counter response to that threat, he said. China currently has roughly 1,300 to 1,500 SRBMs aimed at the island. Taiwan has no offensive missile capability, [according to an official with the Ministry of National Defense (MND)]
The HF-2E could "be a tactical deterrent and strategic bargaining chip in possible military confidence-building measures" with China, said the analyst.
More in Defense News.
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Thursday, November 25, 2010

Preparing for UAV reconnaissance and strike missions - Wendell Minnick


A MQ-9 Reaper unmanned aerial vehicle prepares...Image via Wikipedia
Defense expert Wendell Minnick further explores China's efforts to expand its UAV reconnaissance and strike capabilitiesm. He looks back at the Zhuhai Air Show in Defense News at the offers from AVIC, CASC, CASIC and ASN.
The China Aviation Industry Corp. (AVIC) displayed a model of the new Pterodactyl I UAV. Similar in configuration to as the U.S.-built Raptor, the model was equipped with an unidentified air-to-ground missile under each wing. The 9nine-meter-long UAV has a wingspan of 13 meters and a fuselage width of 1 meter. Performance capabilities include a range of 4,000 kilometers, an endurance of 20 hours, maximum speed of 280 kilometers per hour and a maximum altitude of 5,000 meters. It was also outfitted with a sensor turret under the nose.
AVIC also displayed a model of the TL-8 training drone capable of simulating second- and third-generation fighter aircraft and cruise missiles. According to an AVIC brochure, the drone can operate at 0.85 Mach with a maximum flight time of 40 minutes.
The company also displayed models of two short-range fixed winged reconnaissance UAVs - Night Eagle and SW-1. Both have an operational flight time of three hours. AVIC also provided information on the new ducted-fan Whirlwind Scout. Capable of vertical takeoff and landing, the Scout has a 20-40 minute operational endurance.
More about the other companies at Defense News.

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Thursday, November 18, 2010

Taiwan buys a useless helicopter - Wendell Minnick

An AH-64D Apache LongbowThe wrong helicopter via Wikipedia
Taiwan's decision to purchase 31 AH-64D Apache Longbow attack helicopters for US$ 2.5 bn in stead of Cobras is blasted in an article in Atimes, as it does not fit any of the island's defense strategies. Defense expert Wendell Minnick explains why the decision is odd, to say the least.
"Taiwan has a high mountainous interior with low salty coastlands. Neither are friendly to Apaches," said Wendell Minnick, Asia bureau chief for Defense News, in an interview with Asia Times Online. "Taiwan wanted Apaches largely because they are the latest, most technologically advanced piece of equipment in the US arsenal, but it's the Cobras, which are popular with the US Marine Corps, that can handle the types of environments found in Taiwan with ease." 
The AH-1W Super Cobras Minnick recommends are the backbone of the US Marine Corps' attack helicopter fleet. Over the next decade, they will be replaced by the AH-1Z Viper upgrade, which is widely called "Zulu Cobra" in reference to its variant letter. The marines placed orders for more than 400 AH-1Zs, and one of the things that makes the Zulu Cobra especially suitable for a military that fights in proximity of seashores is that its rotor blades come with a semi-automatic folding design, which allows the helicopter to be stored aboard amphibious assault ships. The Longbow radar that gives the AH-64D Apache Longbow its name can also be mounted, along with the same missiles and rockets as the Apache. 
Neither from a military nor an economic point of view does Minnick see why Taiwan would choose the Apaches over the Cobras. "Taiwan already has two squadrons of AH-1W Super Cobra attack helicopters. It was given an option to procure 30 new Zulu Cobras and was offered an upgrade of their older Super Cobras up to Zulu standards. That would have given them 90 AH-1Z heavy attack helicopters in their inventory. But instead they chose Apaches."
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Wednesday, November 17, 2010

UAV's displayed at Zhuhai air show - Wendell Minnick

Pteryx UAV for aerial photographyImage via Wikipedia
Chinese companies have displayed 25 different models of UAV, unmanned airplanes, at the Zhuhai air show, stressing it technological development, writes defense expert Wendell Minnick in Defense News.
Three Chinese companies - ASN Technology Group, China Aerospace Science and Industry Corp. (CASIC), and China Aerospace Science and Technology Corp. (CASC) produced most of the UAVs on display.
ASN Technology is the largest UAV production company in China, with a history of developing unmanned aerial platforms, including drones, since 1958, said a company press release. The primary customer is the Chinese military and the company controls more than 90 percent of the UAV market in China.
A company spokesperson said ASN works closely with the Northwestern Polytechnical University's UAV Institute.
ASN showed off 10 different UAVs, including the new ASN-211 Flapping Wing Aircraft System, which simulates a bird in flight. The prototype on display has a take-off weight of only 220 grams with a maximum speed of six-to-10 meters a second and an altitude ranging from 20-200 meters. A spokesperson said the micro-UAV would mainly be used for low-altitude reconnaissance for troops in the field.
More details at Defense News.
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Tuesday, November 16, 2010

Air Force shows power in Zhuhai - Wendell Minnick

Wendell_MinnickrevWendell Minnick
Defense specialist Wendell Minnick got a preview of the site of the 8th China International Aviation and Aerospace Exhibition (Zhuhai Airshow), beginning today, showing off China's military capabilities in the air. Seventy aircrafts from 35 countries joined 600 domestic exhibitors.
There were several detailed artist renderings of anti-ship cruise missiles destroying a U.S. aircraft carrier. Two displays by the China Aerospace and Science and Technology Corp. demonstrated how using aerial reconnaissance from UAVs and Beidou satellite communication and navigation satellites could coordinate an anti-ship cruise missile assault from aircraft, surface ships, submarines and land-based coastal batteries....
Foreign commercial aviation and defense companies exhibiting this year include Airbus, AgustaWestland, Bombardier, GE Aviation, Irkut, Pratt and Whitney, Rolls-Royce, Rosoboronexport, Sikorsky, Sukhoi Aviation and Thales.
More in Defense News.

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Monday, November 8, 2010

Air Force loses between powerful military - Wendell Minnick

Roundel of the People's Liberation Army Air ForceImage via Wikipedia
China's military leaders at the People's Liberation Army (PLA) might belong to the most powerful, its Air Force might be rising, but is still lacking clout, learned Wendell Minnick at a conference last week in Taipei on the position of the PLA Air Force (PLAAF), he writes on his weblog.
Despite improvements in China’s ability to dominate the airspace in and around Taiwan and project air power into the South China Sea, the PLAAF faces challenges from Army-led leaders that often inhibit air power.


“The Army has always and will most likely continue to dominate the PLA’s joint leadership and structure,” said Kenneth Allen, a China military specialist at the Defense Group of the Center for Intelligence Research and Analyst, Washington.


All the uniformed vice chairmen of the powerful Central Military Commission (CMC), which has total authority over the military, have been Army officers, he said. This includes the head of each of the four General Departments and the commander of each military region. 
“In my opinion, there are no indications this situation will change,” Allen said.


More at Wendell Minnick's weblog

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Thursday, November 4, 2010

Taiwan's military intelligence thorough infiltrated - Wendell Minnick

Wendell_MinnickrevWendell Minnickvia Flickr
Two high-profile arrests in Taiwan show that China has thoroughly infiltrated Taiwan's Military Intelligence Bureau (MIB), writes Wendell Minnick in Defense News.
Col. Lo Chi-cheng of the MIB and Taiwanese businessman Lo Pin are accused of supplying Beijing with the identities of MIB agents working in China. Both men were arrested Nov. 1. The number of MIB spies compromised since the two began giving information to China in 2007 was not revealed.
The MIB is responsible for collecting military intelligence within China and has a history of recruiting Taiwanese businessmen working in China.
The MIB recruited Lo Pin in 2005 to collect intelligence in China, but after a year, Chinese authorities arrested and allegedly tortured him. Lo Pin agreed to return to Taiwan as a double agent and recruited his MIB handler, Lo Chi-cheng, paying him about $100,000 over four years.
In Defense News an overview of earlier cases of infiltration into the MIB.

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