Monday, August 30, 2010

Taking off the gloves for a bearish Andy Xie - Shaun Rein

Shaun2Shaun Rein by Fantake via Flickr
Is there a bubble in China's real estate. Yes says independent analyst Andy Xie, but our Shaun Rein takes on that assumption. When 60 percent of the apartments in Beijing are paid for in cash, there is no bubble, he tells CNBC. Both opponents are going to cross swords later this week at CNBC.
Also, more on Shaun Rein bearish predictions for the four state-owned banks like the AgBank, who announced sky-high profits last week.

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Shaun Rein is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. When you need him at your meeting or conference, do get in touch.


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Saturday, August 28, 2010

Chinese women, the new spending force

The BundChanging families values
Chinese women are becoming a new force in domestic consumption as they command half of the household budget, writes Newsweek, who tapped into the brains of Tom Doctoroff, Shaun Rein and Paul French, all speakers for the China Speakers Bureau.
Shaun Rein on the figures:
For Western companies, the rise of the female consumer in China is a welcome change. For years, multinationals ignored Chinese women because their contribution to household income was so small—a fact “that’s changed dramatically,” says Shaun Rein, managing director of the China Market Research Group. In the 1950s women contributed just 20 percent of household income. That rose to about 40 percent in the 1990s and then reached 50 percent last year, according to Rein....
Rein’s firm recently found that women younger than 35 are the most optimistic segment in China, with a whopping 80 percent of the 3,500 women surveyed saying they’ll spend more in the second half of 2010 than they did in the first half. With trends like these, Chinese women may bring new meaning to the term “the power of the purse.”
But those women might have other ambitions than the women in the US or Europe today, says Paul French:
At the same time, advertisers are finding that Chinese women crave security, and that portraying women in advertising as fully independent may not work. Paul French, founder of Shanghai market research firm Access Asia, says women want job success, a husband, and 1.0 children with a villa in the suburbs, so advertisements are “similar to cupcake ads in America in 1953,” he says. “Let’s create the perfect family.”
And warns Tom Doctoroff:
“Chinese women are not indulgent consumers,” says Tom Doctoroff, greater China CEO at the advertising agency JWT.
More in Newsweek.
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Tom Doctoroff, Shaun Rein and Paul French all belong to the Chinese Speakers Bureau. Do you need one of them - or all together - at your meeting or conference, do get in touch.

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Thursday, August 26, 2010

US sends radar upgrades to Taiwan - Wendell Minnick

Wendell_MinnickWendel Minnick by Fantake via Flickr
In a move that is likely going to upset China, the US has send radar upgrades to Taiwan for its Indigenous Defense Fighter (IDF), writes Wendell Minnick in Defense News.
The announcement came during a two-day tri-service military exercise in southern Taiwan from Aug. 24-25.
During the exercise, a Ministry of National Defense (MND) source said the radar deal was part of phase two of the IDF's F-CK-1C/D Hsiang Sheng upgrade program. Specifics of the deal were not released.
China has not yet reacted.
moves comes amid rising tensions between China on one side and its neighbors and US on the other side, regularly documented by Wendell Minnick.

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Wendell Minnick is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. When you need him at your conference or meeting, do get in touch.

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Wednesday, August 25, 2010

Economy: picking up or double dip - newsletter

The China Speakers Bureau Newsletter for August 2010 is out and we wonder what economies are picking up and who is going for a double dip. Also news from our speakers, our top-10 of most sought speakers and of course some propaganda for our publishing service.
You can read the newsletter here, but it is of course better to register on this page to guarantee regular delivery.

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Chinese brands moving up the value chain - Shaun Rein

Shaun2Shaun Rein   by Fantake via Flickr
Chinese brands might have been competing on prices and distribution in 2005, in 2010 they are moving up in the value chain and worry Western brands, writes Shaun Rein in Forbes. Quality and image-building have entered China's board rooms.
Look at Google. Our research suggests that Google failed in China in large part because consumers believed that Baidu had far better Chinese-language search capabilities, not just because of an unfair playing field. In head-to-head search comparisons we conducted, Baidu's results weren't necessarily much better than Google's, but its branding as the site that knows Chinese better than Google and that has technology as good has helped it dominate. Unused to serious local competition, Google was slow to roll out local services and marketing campaigns that would resonate with Chinese consumers. Similarly, Ctrip, an online travel site, is beating up Expedia, and Taobao, the online auction site, remains far ahead of eBay. They are better branded, and they fit the needs of local consumers better.
 More trends multinational companies have to watch out for in China in Forbes: rising labor costs and the new focus on domestic consumption.

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Shaun Rein is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. When you need him at your meeting or conference, do get in touch.

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Tuesday, August 24, 2010

The barrow boy grocer from Tesco - Paul French

paulfrenchPaul French  via Flickr
Some foreign companies do well in China, others fail. And some have a more rollerskating experience like Tesco, recalls retail analyst Paul French in the Telegraph. The UK retailer set off on a wrong foot with Taiwanese management, but took a good turn when Mr. Towle, a real grocer from the UK moved over.
Mr Towle has been in China for five years, and has no plans to leave. Under his leadership, the operation is clearly gaining momentum. Tesco did not make the best start in China, paying £140m (a rather steep price-earnings multiple of 51 times) in 2004 for a 50pc stake in Hymall, a Taiwanese supermarket chain with 25 stores.
“So many weird things happened at those stores,” said Paul French, a retail analyst at Access Asia. “It probably would have ended in a labour dispute these days. The staff hated the Taiwanese management and they used to talk about sabotaging the products and so on.
"The UK management sent over some people to try to tell the Taiwanese what to do and in the end they just got rid of them all. Since then, it has all been running well.”
A year after his arrival in China, Mr Towle took 90pc control of the venture for a further £180m and last year Tesco finally clinched the remainder.
Inside his stores, Mr Towle, who has been with Tesco for 25 years, working up from the bakery section, can reel off the prices of any of his products and will happily discuss catchment areas, layout and volumes.
“He’s a good old-fashioned grocer,” said Mr French. “Basically, to understand the Chinese consumer, you have to be a barrow boy grocer. They get it immediately. What was needed was a good deal of ruthlessness. In a business where you have a 2pc margin, you need to be ruthless.”
More in The Telegraph.

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Paul French is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch.

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Saturday, August 21, 2010

Vietnam and US getting closer, thanks to China - Wendell Minnick

Wendell_MinnickrevWendell Minnickvia Flickr
China's maritime actions are enticing Vietnam to edge closer to the US, writes Wendell Minnick in Defense News. 
The United States is taking advantage of Vietnamese angst over Chinese arrests of Vietnamese fishermen, threats against multinational oil companies operating in Vietnamese waters, increased naval exercises and the establishment of a submarine base on Hainan Island.Beijing appears to have abandoned its “smile campaign” toward Southeast Asia; Vietnam is responding accordingly, said Richard Bitzinger, a regional defense analyst at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, Singapore.


Tension between the countries is likely to rise, later in the year, writes Minnick:
The United States and Vietnam are to hold their first military-to-military talks in the final quarter of this year. Vietnam could agree to send officers to advanced education courses in the United States, said Carl Thayer, an expert on Vietnam at the Australian Defence Force Academy in Canberra.


More background here.
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Wendell Minnick is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you want to share his thoughts on China as a military power, please get in touch.

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Friday, August 20, 2010

'Black children' a rural myth - Zhang Juwei

zjwpic2Zhang Juwei  by Fantake via Flickr
For a long time the existence of 'black children' at China's country side- offspring outside the country's one-child policy and not accounted for in its statistics - were seen as an illegal but useful counter measure for the aging problem and the shortage of cheap labor. But the rural fertility rate is not as high as many hope for, tells CASS-director Zhang Juwei in The Economist. 
The Economist:
The recent CASS report said the rate that would be expected if women had exactly as many children as allowed would be 1.47. The government uses the higher figure believing that many “black children” were missed by censuses. But the report disagreed, saying such serious underreporting was unlikely. It said data showed that the 150m-strong migrant population has a fertility rate of only 1.14 (similar to that of registered urban residents). This belies the common image of migrants as big producers of unauthorised offspring. Zhang Juwei of CASS believes the overall fertility rate is no higher than 1.6.
China cannot avoid its looming ageing problem, but these lower fertility estimates suggest its impact could be greater than officials have bargained for. The CASS study calls for a “prompt” change of policy to get the fertility rate up to around the “replacement level” of 2.1. The problem could be in persuading Chinese to have more children. In cities and wealthier rural areas, surveys found that the number of babies women said they actually wanted would produce a fertility rate well below 1.47.
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Zhang Juwei is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you want to share his insights at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch.

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Wednesday, August 18, 2010

Learning from China's Angelina Jolie - Shaun Rein

Li Lili
The name Li Lili might not be a household name for a Western audience, but - explains Shaun Rein in Forbes - for the Chinese she is a mixture of Julie Roberts and Angelina Jolie. Shaun Rein: "Along with Ruan Lingyu and Butterfly Wu, she ruled China's box offices in the 1930s and '40s." Rein re-called how nervous he was meeting her, since she would become his grandmother-in-law.

Shaun Rein:
"Sometimes you need to swim against the current," she told me. "Even if everyone is going in one direction in a bad way, you do what is right and moral. Even if that means going against everyone else.. Never forget that."
He retells her suffering from the Red Guards during the Cultural Revolution, and her special relationship with former colleague and now Mao's wife Jiang Qing.
Not only did Li Lili teach me always to stay optimistic and never to sacrifice morality despite facing evil; she also taught me to make sure to give back to one's homeland and to take care of the poor. Although she and her husband spent several years in the U.S. and Europe in the 1940s, she returned to China after the founding of the People's Republic, at Zhou Enlai's behest, to help rebuild the film industry...
Although Li Lili is most famous for her acting, I remember her for far more. She taught me never to sacrifice ideals and morality, even when the world around is crazy and evil reigns. If she could maintain her resolve to do the right thing and help people through torture and tragedy, then anyone can do so in less trying circumstances. It is our duty.
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shaunreinShaun Rein Fantake via Flickr
Shaun Rein is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. When you need him at your meeting or conference, do get in touch.

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Tuesday, August 17, 2010

Most-sought speakers for August 2010

shaunreinShaun Rein by Fantake via Flickr
The summer holidays and the summer heat forced many to lay low - we noticed from the traffic to our websites - with one exception: Shaun Rein. Almost no day passed without Shaun sharing his views on mainstream TV-stations or on Forbes and Business Week. No wonder he rose to the first place again in our top-10 of most-sought speakers for August 2010. (You can see our listing for July here.)
Shaun Rein covered a wide range of subjects: sex and porn, the stress test for banks, the China blame game of Western media,  the lack of savings, and many more subjects. (See also our speakers' corner).
Kaiser Kuo has his first full month as director at China's leading search engine Baidu. And although we miss his opinion leadership in the mainstream media, he still maintained a firm second place. Otherwise, for those who are following our speakers, not that many surprises in this month's top-10 (July 2010 in brackets).
  1. Shaun Rein (3)
  2. Kaiser Kuo (1)
  3. Arthur Kroeber (4)
  4. Tom Doctoroff (10)
  5. Rupert Hoogewerf or Hurun (8)
  6. William Overholt (-)
  7. Paul French (5)
  8. Wendell Minnick (-)
  9. Jasper Becker (-)
  10. Victor Shih (6)


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All is not yet well for China's economy - Wang Jianmao

Wang JianmaoWang Jianmao Fantake via Flickr
Economic growth seems to be on track and China has passed Japan as the second largest economy in the world, still stiff measures from the government are needed to avoid a second dip, warns CEIBS economy professor Wang Jianmao in CIB-magazine.
Historical statistics on economic growth have been quietly adjusted again, suggesting  the economy was severely overheated just before the global financial crisis took off, showing a seriously overheated economy, writes Wang Jianmao.
The best scenario of proactive adjustment is a U-shaped process of maintaining a moderate growth rate of 7-8% during 2010-2012 and then returning to the potential growth rate of about 9% in 2013. The worst scenario of reactive adjustment is a W-shaped process of propping up double-digit growth until 2012 and then unavoidably diving for a second dip below 5% or even 4%. 
The decision-makers in China should remember the lessons of reactive adjustment and hard landings of the past. China's economy experienced full-blown overheating during 1984 and 1985, with actual growth rate significantly higher than the potential one. After attempts at cooling the economy, the growth rate dropped to 8.8% in 1986, down from 13.5% in 1985, which was similar to the recent shrink in the growth rate from 14.4% in 2007 to 10.2% in 2008 and to 9.1% in 2009. However, the adjustment efforts taken then were not seen through to the end, causing the growth rate to rebound to 11.6% in 1987 and 11.3% in 1988. Then, a second dip became unavoidable and China eventually plunged into a hard landing with a growth rate as low as 4.1% in 1989 and 3.8% in 1990. 
Since China plays a prominent role in the global economy, a second dip of the Chinese economy would mean a second dip for the world. Therefore, a "slow" U-shaped recovery of the Chinese economy should be interpreted as a positive sign indicating that China is moving along the right path. A quick V-shaped recovery is only possible for those countries not severely burdened by flawed development models. Unfortunately China does not belong to this group.
More in the CIB magazine

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Professor Wang Jianmao is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your conference or meeting? Do get in touch.

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Sunday, August 15, 2010

The dramatic fall of Tang Jun - Tom Doctoroff

DoctoroffTom Doctoroff Fantake via Flickr
“Losers cheat some people and get caught. Winners cheat the whole world all the time.” Tom Doctoroff quotes Tang Jun, a former corporate celebrity in China who recently fall from his pedestal. Has the Warren Buffet of China become its Bernie Madoff?

In the Huffington Post
Is Tang Jun without moral scruples? To westerners, the answer is, of course, yes. He built his reputation on, at best, half truths and, at worse, outright deceit. Further, former colleagues at Microsoft and Shanda describe Mr. Tang as a pseudo-leader, perpetually detached, more interested in managing his image amongst foreign bosses and investors than generating lasting shareholder value.
Interestingly, however, the post-scandal reaction of many ordinary Chinese was far more ambiguous, sometimes sympathetic. Although this case unleashed a tidal wave ofschadenfreude, the masses were more titillated than up in arms. According to one 35-year-old professional, “He was only doing what anyone in his position would do.” And another: “Tang Jun got caught. He pushed it too far. But, today, it’s so competitive. We have no choice but to play the damn game. Face is everything.”
More about Tang Jun's moral dilemma's here.

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Tom Doctoroff is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch.

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Rising tension as US carrier visits Yellow Sea - Wendell Minnick

Military tensions between China and the US are rising again as US aircraft carrier George Washington will join exercises with South-Korea in the Yellow Sea, writes Wendell Minnick in Defense News.
The exact date the aircraft carrier would enter the Yellow Sea was not released. The George Washington did not enter the Yellow Sea during exercises last month, supposedly after Chinese objections, but plans to do so in upcoming exercises have once again enraged Beijing.
China "won't stand for U.S. naval provocation," said Maj. Gen. Luo Yuan in an editorial published in the Aug. 9 edition of Global Times.
More in Defense News

Wendell_MinnickrevWendell Minnick Fantake via Flickr
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Wendell Minnick is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. When you need him at your meeting
 or conference, do get in touch.

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Friday, August 13, 2010

Zhang Lijia to visit Kovalam festival in India

Lijia-india2Zhang Lijia in India Fantake via Flickr
Celebrity author Zhang Lijia of the novel "Socialism Is Great!": A Worker's Memoir of the New Chinawill be attending the Kovalam literary festival in India in the fest week of October, local media announced here and here. Last she also visited the literary festival in India last year.
Zhang Lijia's novel is fast getting an international audience, as she will be in Brazil in September to promote her book in Portuguese. A documentary about Zhang is now being made in Italy.
Zhang also contributed to the book by the China Speakers Bureau, A Changing China

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Zhang Lijia is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need her at your meeting, conference or festival? Do get in touch.
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Thursday, August 12, 2010

Fat China, blame on the advertisement industry - Paul French

paulfrenchPaul French
Obesity is rising in China and our speaker Paul French and co-author Matthew Crabbe wrote their new book Fat China: How Expanding Waistlines are Changing a Nation about the feature. In 1982 7 percent of the Chinese were overweight, in 2002 23 percent of urban China, 7 percent obese. In this article in AdAge they blame the advertisement industry.
From AdChina:
Today, 100 to 120 million Chinese are obese and about half of them are kids. The effects of this obesity crisis in China will be legion, including significantly increased levels of disease, including diabetes. China's healthcare system faces a time bomb of 100 million adults with diabetes within a couple of years. The additional costs will be massive.
Culture and wealth play a role in getting China fatter, but French also points his finger ad the advertising industry:
While we can't blame the advertising industry for urban China's appalling driving standards, the relationship between advertising and obesity is a long and documented one internationally, though to date, the discussion of the link between the advertising of fat-inducing foods and drinks and obesity has been muted in China.
This lack of discussion has not been due to any particular government clampdown or censorship, but rather to the rapid growth in advertising and fast-changing lifestyles that have meant that no time has yet been found for such discussions. Yet they will have to happen soon.
More challenging debate at AdAge.


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Paul French is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. When you need him at your meeting or conference, do get in touch.

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Wednesday, August 11, 2010

Sex, porn and their lessons for business - Shaun Rein

shaunreinShaun Rein by Fantake via Flickr
Shaun Rein uses the lessons business can learn from the mixed messages the government is sending on porn and sex. On the internet it is porn crackdown all along the line, while sex and prostitution are everywhere commercially available.
The lesson is so obvious, many veterans like Shaun Rein forget to explain it to relative newcomers in China. In Forbes he makes up for that omission, The government is not one monolith with one message, but a conglomerate of competing interests, You have to be aware of this minefield of conflicting interests to survive in China. At a central level - and the internet is strictly controlled by that level - pornography and prostitution are not done.
At the local level police and other officials face different issues. Police and local officials are way underpaid and aren't allowed to move into the private sector after they've reached a certain rank. Even relatively senior local officials often make only several hundred dollars a month. They get lots of benefits, like housing and cars, but they don't have much personal money of their own. One result is that corrupt officials protect brothels for protection fees.
These corrupt officials and police don't want to lose that income, so they let brothels operate freely as long as they don't become hubs for more serious crimes, like drug sales, or violence--and as long as there isn't overwhelming political will to shut things down, as there was around the Beijing Olympics in 2008 and the run up to the World Expo in Shanghai this year. Many brothels throughout the country were shuttered in the three months leading up to the Olympics, but most were up and running again soon after.
More important lessons in Forbes.

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Shaun Rein is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch.

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Focus on quality growth - Arthur Kroeber

arthurkArthur Kroeber by Fantake via Flickr
China should focus more on the quality of its economic growth and less on the quantity, says economic analyst Arthur Kroeber in ABS-CBN news, now China is getting its rightful place in the world's economic pick order.
The passing of the baton to China is inevitable, said Arthur Kroeber, managing director of the Dragonomics consultancy in Beijing -- but the far more important issue is the quality of its economic growth.
Policymakers need to take a stand against a growth-at-any-cost mentality that, according to Kroeber, "is still very alive throughout the government bureaucracy".
"In fact, insisting on that high growth rate (above 8%) may introduce more distortions into the economy and we really need to focus on how we improve the quality of growth," said Kroeber.
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Arthur Kroeber is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your meeting of conference? Do get in touch.

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Tuesday, August 10, 2010

2010: the year of shifting gears - Bill Fischer

Fischer_William-ABill Fischer by Fantake via Flickr
IMD-professor, and former CEIBS dean, Bill Fischer, describes on his weblog the fast changing speed in China's development. While China has made huge steps forward, at the end Fischer still sees huge barriers to real change in China:
The conundrum underlying all of this is that there is lots of creativity in China today. The art scene; fashion; sculpture; music; cinema. China is awash with creativity. But, if you look closely, what you see is that this innovation is individual innovation, not organizational innovation. What sets the eBays and Amazons and Apples apart is that they are all “organizational” innovation. The iPod experience could not have been designed by one person; it needed a team, and a diverse team at that. Same is true behind most of the big innovations of recent times. Yet, what is it about Chinese organizations that they turn out to be so much less innovative than the sum of the people who are brought together under that organizational structure? Is it that the command & control approach to management which has characterized thousands of years of Chinese history is still hard to break? Or, is it Confucian respect for hierarchy and relational prerogatives? Is it not enough trust; or too much trust? Is it not enough diversity? Or, is it something else?
More at this weblog with a too long name.

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Bill Fischer is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. When you need him at your meeting or conference, do get in touch. 

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China Speakers Bureau to visit Sweden, Switzerland

lavigny 059Zhang Lijia by Fantake via Flickr
In September Fons Tuinstra, president of the China Speakers Bureau, will visit both Sweden and Switzerland and is available to discuss the availability of its speakers. Stockholm is on the agenda for the first week of September, Switzerland, especially the Lausanne area, for the third week of September.
Are you interested in one of our eminent speakers? Do get in touch.

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Monday, August 9, 2010

New anti-ship ballistic missiles deployed from Guangdong - Wendell Minnick

Wendell_MinnickWendell Minnick Fantake via Flickr
In a new step in China's further military expansion, a new anti-ship ballistic missile (ASBN) will be deployed from Guangdong, writes Wendell Minnick in Defense News.  The news has been confirmed by the official Xinhua News Agency.
The ASBM has been dubbed the aircraft "carrier killer" by observers and is part of China's larger anti-access/area denial strategy designed to discourage the U.S. Navy from coming to the aid of Taiwan during a war. Now it appears China is using the same strategy to deter U.S. and other regional navies from operating in the South China Sea.
Though U.S. aircraft carrier groups have significant air defense capabilities, including SM-3 missiles, the threat ASBMs pose is a new one, said Stokes. No country has yet developed a reliable ASBM system and therefore there is reluctance among some analysts to dismiss the possibility China has developed the capability of locating and destroying a moving target at sea with a ballistic missile.
However, U.S. Pacific Commander Admiral Robert Willard told members of the U.S. House and Senate Armed Services Committee in March that China was nearing a test phase for an ASBM.
More in Defense News

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Wendell Minnick is a speakers at the China Speakers Bureau. When you need him at your meeting or conference, do get in touch.

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Thursday, August 5, 2010

Stress tests but no stress for bank sector - Shaun Rein

Shaun2Shaun Rein     by Fantake via Flickr
Bot real estate prices and A-shares in China keep on getting investors attention, but as the country prepares for stress tests of their banks, Shaun Rein expects the government will be able to channel fears about the debts of central and local governments, he tells Bloomberg TV.
Rein foresees a soft lending for the real estate as sales dropped 70 percent over the past few months, indicating consumers are not taking too high risks. Total government debts is at 42 percent of China's GDP, much less than in some of the developed countries, putting it in a good position to deal with those debts with huge problems for the banks. Rein expects no problems as China will expose its banks to the stress tests earlier conducted in the US and Europe.
More at Bloomberg.

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Shaun Rein is a speakers at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch.



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Monday, August 2, 2010

The China blame game - Shaun Rein

shaunreinShaun Rein Fantake via Flickr
Shaun Rein addresses, after the country got wrongly accused last Friday of blocking all of Google's services, the China blame game many Western media play at this clip in CNBC.In the debate Rein gets actually told he acts like an apologist for China, but rebuts this blame-game very well.
Rein explains how important it is to dig a bit deeper when Western media reports talk about China and why we should not take all they write for granted.

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Shaun Rein is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. When you need him at your meeting or conference, do get in touch.


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