Saturday, October 30, 2010

Trade deficit does not mean China steals your jobs - Arthur Kroeber

U.S. Trade Deficit Dollars and % GDPUS trade deficit via Wikipedia
Economists and China analysts all too easy link the trade deficit between China and the US with the loss of jobs in the USA. Wrong, says economic analyst Arthur Kroeber in the Wall Street Journal.
“By the logic of their argument, any country that runs a trade deficit should experience perpetual loss of jobs and wages, and any country that runs a surplus should experience perpetual gains in jobs and wages,” Arthur Kroeber, head of China research for the economic-research company GaveKal Dragonomics, wrote in an email. “Yet many developing countries run consistent current account deficits (for example South Korea during much of the 1970s and ’80s) and still experience high job and wage growth, while other countries run persistent surpluses yet have stagnant employment and wage growth (e.g. Germany and Japan).”
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Arthur Kroeber is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch.
arthurkArthur Kroeber by Fantake via Flickr

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Friday, October 29, 2010

ChiNext created more billionaires - Rupert Hoogewerf

Rupert HoogewerfChina's one-year old stock exchange ChiNext - comparable with Nasdaq - might not have brought many investors high returns, writes Bloomberg, but has according to Rupert Hoogewerf, composer of the Hurun rich list, increased the wealth and raised the number of billionaires.
The creation of ChiNext helped spark a jump in the number of rich Chinese, said Rupert Hoogewerf, founder of the Hurun Report, which compiles an annual list of China’s wealthiest people.
“This year we’ve found about 400 people with a billion yuan, many of them coming through listings,” Hoogewerf said in an interview in Beijing last month. “We’ve seen ChiNext create a whole lot of new wealth that we didn’t even know existed.”
Local investment banks have benefited too. Fees for ChiNext IPOs average 5.14 percent, according to Bloomberg data, more than double those for first-time sales on the main board in Shanghai. ChiNext offerings have generated 5.17 billion yuan in total fees, the data show.
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Rupert Hoogewerf or Hurun is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch.

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Foreign brands struggle as Chinese retailers rise - Paul French


The GAP logo.
Image via Wikipedia
Depending on how you look at the figures, retail grew up to 20 percent in China, retail analyst Paul French tells Forbes and compares the fate of foreign retailers like Gap force domestic competition from the Trinity Group and China Lilang.
Paul French in Forbes:
Take a look at people like Trinity Group (controlled by Hong Kong’s Fung brothers) who recently acquired Kent and Curwen and Gieves and Hawkes. They’re positioning well to catch the next wave of wealthy Chinese men – i.e. the one’s who will probably not just be content with Dunhill! Also take a look at China Lilang, recently IPOed and who are typical of the new Chinese apparel retail entrepreneurs in that the company is designing, sourcing, manufacturing and retailing casual apparel very successfully. Trinity and Lilang represent the two major strategies – acquisition vs manufacturer-turned-retailer. In reality both work.
Paul French is not sure whether recent plans to enter China are that smart:
I’m not sure where The Gap will fit. As a brand struggling internationally and in its home market, it’s perhaps a little late to hope China will save them. It is still true that the trends that sweep China emerge from Europe, and to a lesser extent America and Asia (really only Japan and Korea) and Chinese retailers imitate them. Right now the apparel market is moving from a five-year love affair with sportswear — and a massively crowded market of foreigners and locals — towards fast fashion. Currently all the running really is being made by foreigners in this sector: Zara and Mango — the global phenomena of Inditex, C&A, H&M, Vero Moda, and others. Gap would have been far smarter to come to Shanghai with their Banana Republic brand right now if they wanted to catch a profitable wave.
More in Forbes.

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paulfrenchPaul French by Fantake via Flickr
g or conference? Do get in touch.

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Labor force will shrink after 2015 - Zhang Juwei

Zhang JuweiZhang Juwei by Fantake via Flickr
Are you already worried about the shortage of labor and its rising costs in China? Zhang Juwei of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS) tells Business Week the real labor problems are only developing after 2015.
The workforce—those from 15 to 64 years old—will plateau at almost 1 billion in 2015 and then start to shrink, figures the World Bank. These trends will help drive labor costs higher. "Over the next 10 years, this will become a serious problem," says Zhang Juwei, deputy director of the Institute of Population and Labor Economics at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.
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Do you want to hear more from one of China's leading academics on its labor force? Zhang Juwei is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. When you need him at your meeting or conference, do get in touch.

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Democracy, a matter of the Party - Helen Wang

Wang_Helen_HiRes_black_MG_1708Helen Wang via Flickr
Helen Wang looks at the prospects of democracy in China, inside and outside the Communist Party. Both options do not look very viable, she writes in Forbes.
The Communist Party has picked up the best and the brightest, also from those returning from overseas.
Helen Wang:
In a trip to Shenzhen in August, Wen Jiaobao surprised many China watchers by saying that without political reform China may lose what it has already achieved economically. That view was reconfirmed in an interview with CNN on September 23, when Wen told Fareed Zakaria that “the people’s wishes for and needs for democracy and freedom are irresistible.” I was particularly struck by his ending line: “I will not fall in spite of strong wind and harsh rain, and I will not yield till the last day of my life.”
But the leadership in Beijing was divided and Wen's efforts were shelved for the time being. Still, there is only one option for those who are looking for a change, as Wang concedes:
While the most competitive young people in America went into business, or even, in recent years, nonprofits, some of the brightest young people in China went into the government and joined the Communist Party. They recognized that the party is the only game in town and that party membership has significant advantages, such as career advancement, social status, or personal connections.
More in Forbes.

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Helen Wang is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need her at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch.

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Thursday, October 28, 2010

Private planes: waiting for China's rich - Rupert Hoogewerf

Beijing CBD 2008-6-9 Jianwai SOHO, Yitai Cente...Beijing today via Wikipedia
The famous Hurun rich list, compiled by Rupert Hoogewerf, is offering private plane flights as awards for the wealthy entrepreneurs. China's rich still need some encouragement to rent a private plane. Prices will be handed out during a ceremony coming weekend in Beijing, Hoogewerf told Xinhua.
"We'd like to show respect to those who devoted themselves to society. Moreover, it will definitely be a wonderful experience to have a trip on a private plane," said Rupert Hoogewerf, sponsor of the prize and founder of the Hurun Rich List of China's super-wealthy.
News reports said that China expects to open up its low-altitude airspace in a few flying-restricted zones on a trial basis...
"If the low-altitude airspace is opened, private jets could not only serve the booming new rich for entertainment, but also expand the commercial market," said Rupert Hoogewerf, adding that some big companies will greatly speed up their business trips if they use private aircraft.
More about the private plane market in Xinhua.

Rupert HoogewerfImage by Fantake via Flickr
Rupert Hoogewerf or Hurun
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Rupert Hoogewerf or Hurun is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. When you need him at your meeting or conference, do get in touch.

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Taiwan returns rockets and hurts US ties - Wendell Minnick

Wendell_Minnickrev Wendell Minnck via Flickr
The surprise move by Taiwan to defer two advanced weapon systems from the US is going to hurt its ties with its American allies, says Wendell Minnick in a comment for Reuters.
"It's going to hurt (Taiwan) in Washington to fight for these systems and then say they can't afford them," said Wendell Minnick, Asia bureau chief with Defense News. "It would discourage people in Washington who push hard for the releases."
Taiwan's military are facing a shortfall in funding, Wendell Minnick wrote earlier this month for Defense News.

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Wendell Minnick is a speaker for the China Speakers Bureau. When you need him at your meeting or conference, do get in touch.

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Tuesday, October 26, 2010

Can we get Madame Wu Yi as a speaker?

THE KREMLIN, MOSCOW. Zhu Rongji, Chinese State...Zhu Rongji via Wikipedia
About these and other questions posed to the China Speakers Bureau, you can read in our October newsletter here

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Monday, October 25, 2010

Groupon might have a chance in China - Sam Flemming

Groupon logo.Image via Wikipedia
The group buying company Groupon from Chicago has set its eyes on China, after successes in 29 countries, including Europe and Japan. Groupon might actually have a chance to win, says CIC founder Sam Flemming in CNBC, although IT companies from the US have mostly failed in China and group buying was actually invented in China as tuangou.
In CNBC:
Tuangou flourished in China partly because haggling is part of Chinese culture, and partly because of scale: there were 420 million Chinese online as of June, 2010, up by 36 million from the end of 2009, according to the China Internet Network Information Center. Chinese netizens also spend a lot of time on internet forums, chatting with others who are interested in the same issues or products. There are, for example, 700,000 people talking about cars in online car-related communities; they post 13 million comments about cars each month, according to CIC Data, an Internet consulting firm that tracks China’s blogs, online bulletin board sites and social media for companies. In North America, you just don’t have the same size or scale of pre-existing online communities, says CIC founder, Sam Flemming.
“In China, this grew out of something customers were already doing. Chinese Netizens had already organized themselves online around brands, products and services – then they recognized they have the collective power to do different things: complain a brand not offering good service, or get 55 people together and get a discount,” says Flemming.
What American companies do better than Chinese is making money on the internet, says Flemming in CNBC.
Still, there appears to be a huge demand for Americanized version of tuangou; at least 50 Groupon clones have popped up in the last few months. Shtuango.com may be making money, but it’s nowhere as successful as Groupon.

“We’ve seen this both with tuangou and with online social games, like Happy Farm; both were developed in China, but made a lot more money in the U.S., because American companies figured out how to monetize it effectively,” says Flemming.
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samflemmingSam Flemming by Fantake via Flickr
Sam Flemming is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch.

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Saturday, October 23, 2010

Baidu's Robin Li tops IT-rich list - Rupert Hoogewerf

Rupert HoogewerfHurun by Fantake via Flickr
Apart from real estate and retail, China's IT industry is becoming a major money maker, notes Hurun rich list compiler Rupert Hoogewerf in the People's Daily. Robin Li of the largest search engine Baidu tops his IT-rich list this year.
Robin Li, founder of Baidu, one of the world’s leading search engine companies, topped the Rupert Hoogewerf 2010 IT rich list released yesterday with assets of 31.5 billion yuan. He was followed by Ma Huateng, CEO of the Tencent, China’s leading instant messaging company, and Ding Lei, CEO of Net Ease, who hold property with 29.3 billion yuan and 15.1 billion yuan, respectively.
This was the third time for Li to top the list after taking the No. 1 spot in 2007 and 2008. This time, Li set a record for the most assets held by anyone on the list since it was established.
The Hoogewerf group attributed the strong performance of Baidu to its tripled growth price in the U. S. stock market and the withdrawal of Google from mainland China.
In the People's Daily more details about Tencent, Alibaba and Huawei.

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Rupert Hoogewerf is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your conference or meeting? Do get in touch.

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Friday, October 22, 2010

Taiwan rocket story ´political´ - Wendell Minnick

Sun Yat-Sen Memorial Hall in Taipei, Republik ...Taiwan via Wikipedia
Director General Tsai De-sheng of the Taiwanese National Security Bureau said this week that the number of rockets  pointing at the island from China have risen to 1,400, but defense specialist Wendell Minnick is not convinced by the story, he tells Japanese media.
Wendell Minnick, Asia bureau chief for industry newspaper Defense News, expressed skepticism at the announcement and the lack of detail on the missiles that make up the total.
Adding to the confusion, Tsai said the figure included not only ballistic missiles but also long-range cruise missiles that would not likely be used against Taiwan, instead acting as "anti-access weapons" against countries intervening in a cross-strait conflict.
"This might be a political move, an attempt to encourage the Americans to release weapons to Taiwan," Minnick said, referring in part to 66 F-16 C/D fighters long sought by Taipei but whose sale is strongly opposed by Beijing.
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Wendell Minnick is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. When you need him at your meeting or conference, do get in touch.
Wendell_MinnickrevWendell Minnick via Flickr

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Companies better in targeting Chinese consumers - Shaun Rein

NINGBO, CHINA - OCTOBER 8:  Workers lay cables...Image by Getty Images via @daylife
It took them a while, but luxury brands are becoming better in targeting the Chinese consumer, especially the young women, says Shaun Rein in CNN. One of the side effects: more work for Chinese models.
"People are savvy now, they dress to impress," said Shaun Rein, managing director of CMR, a company that closely tracks China's luxury consumption. "Everyone knows someone who was a pig farmer who now drives a Mercedes." 
"Companies are no longer saying, 'whatever works at home will work in China,'" Rein said. "Luxury companies want to create an emotional connection with Chinese consumers, show respect and set themselves apart. So they're trying to feature models who Chinese consumers will aspire to."... 
In China, companies are focusing on targeting a younger demographic that is spending their cash at home.
"To increase their sales, companies are targeting younger women, for example, a secretary making $800 a month but hoping to purchase a $1,000 Gucci bag," said Rein of CMR. "They'll save three or four months of their salary to buy an item."

Despite their limited spending power now, experts predict that winning Chinese customers' attention and trust when they are young will pay off.
Much more about the Chinese models in this article in CNN

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ShaunRein2Shaun Rein by Fantake via Flickr
Shaun Rein is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch.

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Thursday, October 21, 2010

Most-sought speakers for October 2010

Rupert HoogewerfHurun by Fantake via Flickr
It's October and it might not come as a surprise that Rupert Hoogewerf or Hurun has appeared as the largest mover in our most-sought speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. This years' Hurun rich list attracted much attention, as it showed how Chinese women are conquering top positions, how retail is becoming more important and real estate tycoons are losing their financial leverage - although still important.
Rupert Hoogewerf replaced Kaiser Kuo on the third place, as Kuo is now working more behind the scenes of China's largest search engine, Baidu.com.
Not quiet have been our numbers one and two. Shaun Rein was already our most-quoted speaker, but is now appearing in mainstream media at least twice a week. This month he blamed Apple's Steve Jobs for being too US-centric and was caught predicting two, three decades of solid growth for ChinaPaul French is not that much quoted, but very busy on this book tour, promoting his latest book Fat China. Obvious, with good results.
Worth mentioning is also the staying power of two relative newcomers, Helen Wang and Wendell Minnick. Often, new speakers on our roster are in danger of slipping away into the dark corners of our databases, but both are able to attract enough attention to say in our top ten.
Now, the official top-10 of most-sought speakers for October (September between brackets
  1. Shaun Rein (1)
  2. Paul French (2)
  3. Rupert Hoogewerf or Hurun (-)
  4. Kaiser Kuo (3)
  5. Arthur Kroeber (7)
  6. Tom Doctoroff (5)
  7. Helen Wang (7)
  8. William Overholt (8)
  9. William Bao Bean (9)
  10. Wendell Minnick (10)


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Real estate tycoons see wealth drop - Rupert Hoogewerf

Rupert HoogewerfHurun by Fantake via Flickr
Chinese women and retailers might we doing well on the Hurun rich list, compiled by Rupert Hoogewerf, but real estates tycoon saw their wealth shrink by 25 percent, writes the People's Daily and attributes this to successful government efforts to cool down the industry. The People's Daily is the national newspaper of China's communist party.
The Hurun Research Institute's China Property Rich List reported on Tuesday that the 50 richest Chinese property developers have 11.6 billion yuan ($1.7 billion) this year, on average. That's down from the record high of 15.5 billion in 2007, and 12 billion last year...
"The declining wealth shows that China's real estate market is undergoing a major adjustment (through the government's tightening and property price curbs)," it went on.
Wang Jianlin, 56, chairman of the Wanda Group, came in as the property king of kings with a personal worth of 28 billion yuan, at seventh place on the list.
Trailing him is Wu Yajun, 46, of Longfor Property, with a mere 27 billion yuan, making her China's property queen.
So, only two tycoons dealing only in property managed to make it to Hurun's top 10 this year, compared with six last year.
"This year is the first time in 10 years that a property tycoon has not made the top five," said Rupert Hoogewerf, founder and compiler of the Hurun Report
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Rupert Hoogewerf is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your conference or meeting? Do get in touch.


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Tuesday, October 19, 2010

Rare earth is not that rare - Arthur Kroeber

ark photo apr 08-1_head shotArthur Kroeber by Fantake via Flickr
The real or imaginary boycott on rare earth export to Japan has kept many politicians, diplomats and media busy. But according to economic analyst Arthur Kroeber the issue is not what it seems, he tells Marktplace at Public Radio. China cannot win that battle, says Kroeber:
Economist Arthur Kroeber doesn't buy the rumor that China will further cut rare earth exports. Why? Despite their name, there are plenty of rare earth reserves outside of China, they will be developed, and China knows this.
KROEBER: "The more China attempts to use its present monopoly position as leverage in international disputes, the more certain they make it that that monopoly position will be destroyed."
China's monopoly on these minerals may be short-lived. One big customer, Japan, is reportedly looking to Mongolia and Canada in an effort to reduce its dependence on Chinese rare earth metals.
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Arthur Kroeber is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch.

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Xi Jinping: the compromise candidate - Victor Shih

Xi Jinping 习近平Xi Jinping via Wikipedia
After the elevation of Xi Jinping, son of the revolutionary hero Xi Zhongxun, into China's military comite, analysts try to find out what his agenda is. That is still speculation, says Victor Shih in The Global and Mail
“Xi Jinping was a compromise candidate, a princeling who could be sure to defend the regime's interests,” said Victor Shih, a professor of Chinese politics at Northwestern University. “He hasn't announced much of his own agenda yet. We haven't seen, in terms of policies, what he's going to propose."
Many more interesting background in the thorough piece by Mark Mackinnon. 

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Victor Shih is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch.
victor shihVictor Shih by Fantake via Flickr


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US companies oppose rise of the Renminbi - Shaun Rein

ShaunRein2Shaun Rein by Fantake via Flickr
US congress and other political bigwigs might be pushing China to appreciate its currency, but Shaun Rein asked US companies, and they see their interests hurt by a rise of the Renminbi, he writes in Forbes:
The next time you hear someone in Congress push to appreciate the renminbi, ask them why they would want to make prices higher for everyday Americans at Wal-Mart and take away profits for American workers when they need it most. That endangers America's economy as well as China's.
Yes, you are reading this correctly: a rise of the Renminbi hurts US interests. Shaun Rein recalls a recent meeting with the president of one of his clients:
I asked him what he thought about Congress pushing for appreciation of China's currency, the renminbi, or yuan. His immediate answer: "It would be the worst thing for my company." (His company is 100% owned by Americans, by the way.) First, he said, an appreciating renminbi cuts into his company's profits, which lowers bonuses, salaries and dividends for employees in the U.S. Why would anyone want to lower the profits of American companies during a financial crisis?
Second, an appreciating renminbi also would not save American jobs, he argued: "That saving American jobs argument is ridiculous." Companies would "transfer production to lower-cost places like Vietnam or Indonesia.
More in Forbes, including observations on the threat of a trade war.

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Shaun Rein is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch.

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Monday, October 18, 2010

Next 5-year plan: a leaner and greener economy - Shaun Rein

ShaunReinportraitShaun Rein by Fantake via Flickr
China's economy is going to be much leaner and greener, says Shaun Rein in CNBC, as the plans for the 12th five-year plan have been made in Beijing over the weekend. Green technology is already getting much financial support.
Economic growth might be more moderate, but no lower than 7 percent, Rein says. And the next two decades will see another 400 million Chinese citizens moving to cities, as the drive for urbanization continues and all hands are needed in the cities to face the upcoming aging problem.

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Shaun Rein is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your meeting or conference, do get in touch.


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Friday, October 15, 2010

China needs structural changes - Arthur Kroeber

arthurkArthur Kroeber by Fantake via Flickr
As China's leadership gathers in Beijing to set its economic course for the coming five years, including its economic imbalance, Arthur Kroeber has a critical look at the country's achievements in the BBC.
"I think the leadership may be looking at the recent performance and over-estimating how good they really have done," said Arthur Kroeber, managing director of the research firm Dragonomics.
"They might also be under-estimating the need for structural reforms that will generate growth in the future."
More background at the BBC.

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Arthur Kroeber is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. When you need him at your meeting or conference, do get in touch.

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Thursday, October 14, 2010

Steve Jobs is too US-centric - Shaun Rein


Steve Jobs while introducing the iPad in San F...
Too America-centric via Wikipedia
Apple was able to cause some queues when their iPad hit its two stores in China, but according to Shaun Rein Steve Jobs is still too much focused on America, ignoring lucrative markets elsewhere, he tells the Mercury News.
"Apple has great products the whole world wants," said Rein, of China Market Research. "But Steve Jobs looks at America too much. The company is too Ameri-centric. This is a complaint you hear throughout the world."
For now, though, Chinese consumers are riveted with Apple's splashy presence in Beijing and Shanghai.
The average Chinese consumer might not have as much money to spend as the US baby boomers, but because they spend their income differently, they can still afford the expensive Apple products, Rein argues:
It's not uncommon for Chinese to spend two months' salary -- or more -- on an iPhone, which costs about $750 for a 16 gigabyte model without a China Unicom contract, though the relative scarcity of the devices has driven the price up among scalpers and resellers. Consumers can also get a 16GB iPhone 4 with a two-year contract that costs about $880. Some Chinese don't even use the device as a phone because it's too expensive for them to make calls; instead, it's used to send text messages, said Shaun Rein, managing director of Shanghai-based China Market Research Group.
"They use the iPhone as a status symbol to show their sophistication in the world, even though they can't afford it," he said.
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Shaun Rein is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau and one of our specialists on marketing.
ShaunReinportraitShaun Rein by Fantake via Flickr
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Joining Marshall USC in Shanghai - John van Fleet

John van FleetJohn van Fleet by Fantake via Flickr
John D. van Fleet has this month joined the Marshall University of South California as their Assistant Dean and Executive Director at their Global Executive MBA in Shanghai.
John van Fleet is one of the best-informed sources on business education in China and has been organizing high-end training programs for executives from all over the world. He is also a founding member of the China Marketing Association.

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John van Fleet is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch.

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